Europe's weekend elections are a big test for MAGA-admiring parties
Presidential elections are taking place this weekend in both Romania and Poland, with striking parallels between the two contests: both pit MAGA-admiring right-wingers against moderates.
European officials will be watching the results closely of races that could have big implications for the continent’s future direction.
In Romania, the favourite is 38-year-old hard-right nationalist George Simion, a vocal fan of Donald Trump and proud owner of the US President’s signature red MAGA baseball cap. He wants to emulate Trump’s governing style by cutting taxes, stamping out “woke” ideology and backing traditional Christian values. His playground bully tactics on the campaign trail have a distinctly Trumpian tone to them too: Simion has ridiculed his centrist rival, the soft-spoken mathematician mayor of Bucharest Nicușor Dan, telling reporters: “He’s autistic, poor guy.”
Simion would likely be a disruptive influence in Brussels, in the mould of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, or Slovakia’s Robert Fico. He has already slated French President Emmanuel Macron’s “dictatorial tendencies” and criticised the primacy of EU law.
A victory for Simion, who has voiced support for cutting military aid to Ukraine, would also mean Kyiv loses the support of a strategically vital NATO member on Europe’s eastern edge.
In contrast, 55-year-old Dan - who labels Simion a “Russian gazette” - has called on Trump to take a harder line with Putin in Ukraine peace negotiations and vowed to keep Romania on its pro-EU trajectory.
The Romanian vote is being held after the result of November’s election was annulled in light of the shock victory of ultranationalist, anti-Ukraine, hard-right candidate Călin Georgescu. Romanian authorities insisted a coordinated Russian disinformation campaign had bolstered Georgescu’s candidacy, rendering the result illegitimate. Yet many voters in Romania — including some who did not back Georgescu - believe the cancellation of an election by Romania’s constitutional court set an alarming precedent for a democratic country. Simion is likely to be the chief beneficiary of this anger.
Sunday’s election is expected to be tight. In the first round of voting, Simon won 41 percent of the vote to Dan’s 21 per cent, but polls suggest Dan is significantly closing the gap ahead of the second round of voting. On Wednesday, a poll of 4,000 people by AtlasIntel put the two candidates neck-and-neck on 48 per cent each.
Meanwhile, in Poland’s presidential election, the stakes aren’t quite as high. Warsaw is governed by centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the Polish presidency is not responsible for setting policy. Even so, Polish Presidents do have veto powers capable of causing a big headache for the sitting government.
The outgoing conservative president, Andrzej Duda, from the right-wing populist Law and Justice party, has used that power extensively to derail legislation passed by Parliament, blocking Tusk’s broad reforms.
This weekend’s presidential election is expected to result in a runoff between Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, the centrist Civic Coalition candidate, and Karol Nawrocki, who, much like Duda, hails from the Law and Justice party.
A win for Trzaskowski - the favourite in a tight race - would help Tusk to implement his desired reforms and likely strengthen his pro-EU approach to domestic politics, driving Poland closer to traditional European powers such as France and Germany.
In this vote, Ukraine has less to fear. The geography of Poland means that the Russian threat - and trepidation over the wide-reaching implications of a Ukrainian defeat - have been a unifying factor in domestic politics. Unlike the nationalist presidential candidate in Romania, Nawrocki - much like his centrist rival - strongly supports military aid for Ukraine. That said, Nawrocki’s tough approach to migration means he has vowed to prioritise Polish citizens over Ukrainian refugees when it comes to medical services or schools.
Like Simion, Nawrocki openly embraces a close relationship with Trump, bragging that the US President told him “you will win” following a chummy encounter at a White House event.
Are Simion and Nawrocki wise to play up their proximity to Trump?
France’s National Rally is treading carefully on this front. In February, the party’s President Jordan Bardella cancelled his speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference, citing Trump ally Steve Bannon’s “gesture referring to Nazi ideology.”
And the context behind the recent victories for centre-left parties in Canada and Australia suggests that perceived alignment with Trump can prove electorally damaging.
The outcome of Sunday’s elections will give us a further clue as to whether cosying up to Trump is a help or a hindrance to Europe’s right-wingers. Nigel Farage will be paying close attention.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
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