Time to find out if Putin is remotely serious about peace
“It’s up to Russia now”, President Trump told reporters at the White House this evening, as he insisted it “makes sense” for Moscow to agree to a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine, while refusing to be drawn on the chances of achieving any breakthrough with Vladimir Putin.
When asked if he trusted the Russian leader, Trump replied: “We haven’t spoken to him yet.”
Following Kyiv’s acceptance of a US proposal for a temporary 30-day ceasefire last night, after a full day of talks between Ukrainian and US delegations in Saudi Arabia, the ball is indeed in Russia’s court. As Trump rightly points out: “It takes two to tango”.
A US delegation, led by special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is expected to meet Russian counterparts in Moscow later this week, meaning we will soon have the first indication of whether Putin is even remotely serious about a peace deal.
Under the US proposal, a temporary 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine can be extended by mutual agreement and, once fighting is paused, negotiations will begin immediately on the terms of a permanent peace.
While the likes of Keir Starmer are hailing the result of last night’s talks in Saudi as a “remarkable breakthrough”, there’s a lot we don’t know about what went on behind closed doors - and what compromises Kyiv hinted it could be prepared to make.
For the US, a key stated objective of yesterday’s talks was to find out what Ukraine's red lines were. But, on his way into the negotiations, US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio also described territorial concessions by Ukraine as the “only way” to end the war. Today, however, Zelensky insisted that Kyiv will “not recognise any territories occupied by Russia”, labelling this a “red line” in any future peace talks with Russia, calling into question what progress - if any - was made with Washington yesterday on this critical point.
Additionally, while the meeting resulted in the US immediately lifting the pause in intelligence sharing with Kyiv, and confirming it will restart “security assistance”, we don’t know if Kyiv made any inroads with securing a long-term commitment from Washington that it will help to ensure a peace deal with Russia holds.
Despite these ambiguities, Zelensky reiterated today: “We are ready for a ceasefire for 30 days as proposed by the American side”. Albeit with one caveat: he has “no trust” in Russia over this truce.
Even if Putin accepts a 30-day ceasefire, is he serious about seeking long-term peace?
So far, we have received no hint of any concessions Moscow would be willing to make, nor of any that Washington will be demanding of it. And Trump’s questionable negotiating tactic of publicly stating that “Russia has the cards” gives the Kremlin even less incentive to compromise.
The concern is that Putin will set out demands for a lasting deal that are impossible for Ukraine to accept, refusing to budge on any major points of contention, knowing that he is perfectly happy to keep on fighting.
That Russia is currently gaining ground on the battlefield could make Putin even less inclined to seek peace.
Kyiv is at risk of losing its one territorial bargaining chip: a chunk of Russian land it has held since last August when Ukrainian forces launched their bold cross-border incursion.
Over the weekend, Russian forces embarked on a fierce counter-offensive in Russia’s border region of Kursk and today, the Ukrainian open-source mapping project Deepstate revealed that Ukrainian forces have fully withdrawn from the crucial town of Sudzha, a key Ukrainian supply hub and the only Russian town it had fully seized.
That said, the massive drone attack Ukraine conducted on Monday night - in which it sent 300 drones across the border overnight, killing at least three people, injuring at least 20 and and causing damage at a Moscow oil refinery - was a reminder that Putin does not hold all the cards.
If Moscow isn’t serious even about a temporary truce, then Ukraine has called its bluff.
And, if Putin refuses to accept the proposed 30-day ceasefire, Trump insists he can impose “devastating” financial penalties on Moscow.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
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How is the drone attack on Moscow - where people were killed, injured and a civilian apartment block was hit - any different from terrorism? And terrorising a nuclear-armed nation at that?
If that's a card that the Ukrainian leadership holds, I would suggest it is not one we should be associating ourselves with.
Playing devil's advocate: from the Russian perspective, why would they agree to a temporary pause such that the Ukrainians can be re-armed? Surely peace talks need to be about a lasting peace?