Syrian celebrations undercut by Israel's flash offensive
Syria is far stable as neighbours circle the weakened state
Scenes of jubilation over the freeing of hundreds of Syrian political prisoners were overshadowed today by a relentless Israeli aerial barrage across the country and an escalating conflict in Syria’s Kurdish region.
As the rebel faction HTS - which spearheaded the offensive against Bashar al-Assad - deliberated from Damascus over Syria’s new direction, appointing one of its own as interim PM, the nation faced a sweeping and unprecedented assault from its old foe. Israel seized upon the security vacuum to annihilate nearly all of the Assad regime's military and alleged chemical weapons sites, launching an estimated 250 strikes in a blitz of steel and fire.
While the Israeli air force laid waste to nearly every Syrian military aircraft, navy vessel, and ammo depot from above, armoured forces pushed further into the interstate “buffer zone”, a UN-demilitarised area that has separated the opposing sides since 1974. Israeli soldiers also scaled the summit of the snow-capped Mount Hermon to capture former Syrian army positions on the strategically valuable peak. From this sweeping vantage point, Israel can monitor and target Hezbollah to their west while placing artillery batteries that could hit Damascus a mere 40 kilometers to the east.
Israel maintains that the measure is temporary and defensive. But critics accuse it of violating international law and fear that it may use the security defence to eventually annex the region as was done in the adjacent Golan Heights.
Beyond the strategic implications, the manoeuvre indicates that the relationship between Syria and Israel will remain adversarial despite the departure of Assad. As Gerald Warner points out in Reaction today, HTS’s figurehead al-Jolani is from one of the villages recently captured by Israel, a move sure to hit home for the Islamist leader. In addition, while HTS itself was not targeted by the IDF, it is hard to imagine Syria’s new leadership will take kindly to the country’s future air force, navy, and major weapons supplies being wiped out in an instant.
HTS’s intentions in regard to Israel remain ambiguous. So far, the group has tactically refrained from calling for violence against the Jewish state in public declarations. However, warning signs are flashing. Last week, upon taking the Aleppo citadel, HTS laid out a massive Palestinian flag beside that of the Free Syrian Army. Its movement has broadly been intertwined with Arab Sunni solidarity and numerous supporters online have posted slogans such as “Damascus today, Jerusalem tomorrow".
That said, some of HTS’s ambitions for Syria may in fact align with Israel’s interests. The group has indicated a desire to decentralise power and allow autonomous regions to remain under self-determined “Islamic governance councils”. This potential restructuring is advantageous to Israel as it weakens Syria’s state-power over the long term and bolsters Israel’s Kurdish allies in the self-governing Rojava territory.
An empowered Kurdish state is seen as a major threat by Turkey's Erdogan, who, along with being one of the major facilitators of the Syrian revolution’s survival, is a key player in the continuing conflict. Chief among Erdogan’s concerns is the potential resurgence of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), an internationally recognized terrorist organisation that aims to create a marxist Kurdish state in Turkey. Six PKK members happen to have been arrested in anti-terror raids across the UK today.
While international media has primarily turned its attention to Syria’s Damascus, Turkish-funded mercenaries of the Syrian National Army (SNA) drove Kurdish forces out of the Syrian city of Manbij over the last few days with assistance from Turkey's air force. Fortunately for the Kurds, a hastily crafted US withdrawal deal saved hundreds of their fighters and civillians who have been subject to kidnapping, rape, and murder by the SNA in the past.
Manbij will not be the last battle in the northeast however, and Erdogan will keep pushing, essentially pitting NATO against itself as alliance supplies flow to both sides of the war.
Syria’s loathed Assad is gone, but a smooth transition of power appears unlikely, as neighbours on all sides - with their unique, and often competing, set of interests - mobilise to assert their influence.
Josh Schlicht
Reaction Reporter
ON REACTION TODAY
Adam Boulton
British meddling in Syria has been inglorious and ineffective
Gerald Warner
Celebrating Assad's fall is a triumph of optimism over reality
Giga Watt
Trump's energy policy: "Drill, baby, drill” will be more wind-up than reality
ALSO KNOW
Man charged with killing healthcare boss - A 26-year-old man has been charged with murder over last week's fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in New York City. Luigi Mangione was taken into custody at a McDonald's in the town of Altoona, Pennsylvania, on Monday after a customer recognised him. According to the police, Mangione was found in possession of a gun and a handwritten document that expressed "ill will" towards corporate America.
Rachel Reeves’s waste crackdown - Speaking from a hospital in Kent today, the Chancellor promised to use an “iron fist” to squeeze government waste, adding “I have no doubt that we can find efficiency savings within government spending of 5% and I’m determined to do so.” The Chancellor and Treasury Chief Secretary Darren Jones have begun work on a sweeping multi-year spending review which will be published in 2025.
Reform’s new treasurer - Billionaire property tycoon Nick Candy, who is married to singer Holly Valance, has renounced his Conservative party membership to become Reform UK’s treasurer. Candy also revealed that he spoke to Elon Musk this morning, amid speculation that the US tech tycoon could make a multi-million-pound donation to Nigel Farage's party.
The future of Syrian refugees in Britain - Home Office Minister Angela Eagle has said that the UK government is willing to "facilitate" the return of exiled Syrians following the fall of dictator, Bashar al-Assad - while stressing the "fluidity" of the current political situation in Syria. As of last year, there were an estimated 20,000 Syrian refugees in the UK, according to the Refugee Council.
FIVE THINGS
Curated by the Reaction Team - Caitlin Allen
Why dictators fall. Edmund Stewart in EI
Has Javier Milei proved his critics wrong? Ciara Nugent and Michael Stott in The FT
Lisa Goldman examines Israeli media’s coverage of the fall of Assad, in New Lines
Geoff Shullenberger in COMPACT on the antipsychiatry movement’s long shadow
South Korea is in constitutional chaos, writes Michelle Kim in Foreign Policy