Starmer's defence pledge is well-timed but unlikely to satisfy Trump
Keir Starmer unveiled the “biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War” today, in a surprise announcement timed to bolster his credibility ahead of a visit to the White House on Thursday.
"Putin's aggression does not stop in Ukraine," said the PM at a Downing Street news conference this evening, as he warned of our “dangerous new era” and committed to raising defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027.
"Russian spy ships menace our waters, Russian planes enter our airspace, Russian cyber attacks hit our NHS, and just seven years ago, there was a Russian chemical weapons attack in broad daylight on the streets of Salisbury”, he added.
It’s true that Donald Trump thinks Britain should do more to bolster its own defences, conceded Starmer, “and I agree with him”.
But will Trump - who has threatened to encourage the Russians “to do whatever the hell they want” to any NATO country that doesn't up its defence spending - consider Starmer’s new target to be ambitious enough?
Previously, Labour had committed to an increase in defence spending to 2.5%, but hadn't set out a timetable. UK defence spending is currently equal to 2.3% of GDP, so the increase will mean an extra £13.4bn a year on defence.
Starmer has also promised to increase the defence budget to 3 per cent by 2034. Though this is hypothetical, as it is contingent on Labour securing another general election victory - and the country finding the money.
The announcement is well timed not only because the PM is jetting off to Washington tomorrow. It also took the wind out of Kemi Badenoch’s big foreign affairs speech today, in which she had pushed for a more ambitious defence spending pledge.
While there is broad political and public support for raising defence spending, the government’s decision to largely fund this boost by cutting the foreign aid budget will inevitably create a backlash.
Starmer confirmed that he plans to cut the UK’s development spending from 0.5 per cent to 0.3 per cent of national income - a stark reversal of his previous election promise to restore the (already slashed) aid budget to 0.7 per cent.
This is another blow - albeit on a much smaller scale - for the development sector and the world’s most vulnerable, who are already reeling from the devastating impact of Trump’s major cuts to USAID.
Critics will argue that it is short-sighted too, since it leaves countries around the world that bit poorer, more disease-ravaged and unstable, in turn leading to more violent conflict and migration.
Ironically, while the move is all part of an effort to bolster Britain’s defences against Russian aggression, it risks impacting Ukraine too, one of the biggest recipients of UK humanitarian aid.
Starmer conceded that it was a “hard choice” to make, though he will be hoping that a foreign aid cut generates less domestic backlash than if he had chosen to fund his defence pledge by cutting UK welfare spending or raising taxes again. He may also have decided it would be smart politics to steal one of Reform’s own policies (slashing overseas aid in order “prioritise Britain’s hard-working taxpayers”).
Domestic scrutiny aside, how will this new pledge affect the PM’s crunch talks with Trump?
It’s difficult to imagine that the US president - who has demanded that NATO allies spend a whopping 5 per cent of GDP on defence - will be wildly satisfied by news of Britain’s 0.2 percentage point increase.
That said, Trump must know that his stated target is extremely ambitious, meaning it’s probably more of a bargaining chip.
Poland - which plans to spend 4.7 per cent of its GDP on defence in 2025 - is the only NATO member anywhere close to meeting it. Even America itself - on 3.4 per cent - falls far short.
The UK is currently the ninth biggest spender in NATO, while countries such as Italy and Spain languish behind, both spending less than 1.5 per cent on defence.
Today’s announcement from Starmer is an important start. Though it won’t take the pressure off him for long.
NATO chief, Mark Rutte, insists that allies must aim for a figure “north of 3 per cent”.
Starmer’s assertion that he is unlocking the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War, though accurate, is perhaps a little misleading.
UK spending on defence has been on a downward trend since the mid to late 1980s. Meaning the bar for ambitious post-Cold War defence spending is decidedly low.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
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