Russia-Ukraine begin biggest prisoner swap but peace remains an elusive goal
Moscow and Kyiv have completed the first phase of the biggest prisoner exchange since the start of Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, even as Trump’s efforts to end Europe’s deadliest conflict since the Second World War remain frustrated.
“We are bringing our people home,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky today, as he confirmed that 270 soldiers and 120 civilians have already arrived back in Ukraine.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, “270 Russian servicemen and 120 civilians” have been returned to Russia. It said the civilians were captured by Ukrainian troops in Kursk, the region where Ukraine launched its surprise cross-border incursion last summer which has now been mostly reclaimed by Russia.
The swap will continue over the weekend, with Kyiv and Moscow expected to exchange 2,000 prisoners (1,000 from each side) in total.
"Congratulations to both sides on this negotiation. This could lead to something big???," posted Trump on Truth Social today.
Emphasis on the “could”. Agreeing to a prisoner swap was the only tangible piece of progress to emerge from negotiations in Istanbul last week - the first direct talks between the two sides since Putin launched his full-scale war in February 2022.
Trump, Putin and Zelensky all said they would attend the talks but, in the end, all three sent intermediaries.
Zelensky, already in Turkey, pulled out after Putin announced he would not be coming, despite being the one to propose the talks himself, instead of agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine. Meaning the no-show was another sign that he is not serious about peace.
As for Trump, his special envoy Keith Kellog stated that if Putin attended, the US President would be there while Trump himself tried to claim that the only reason Putin hadn’t turned up was because he wasn’t there. In reality, it seems Trump couldn’t even convince the Russian president to turn up to his own proposed peace talks yet alone to end his war of aggression.
Since the Istanbul talks, Russia has conducted its largest drone attack against Ukraine of the entire war, targeting several regions including Kyiv.
Putin insists he wants an end to the killing but there is still no indication that he has rowed back on any of his original maximalist demands of territorial concessions and future Ukrainian neutrality. Kyiv says that is tantamount to surrender and would leave it defenseless in the face of future Russian attacks
This makes it difficult to feel too optimistic about Trump’s insistence following his two-hour phone call with Putin on Monday that Russia and Ukraine would “immediately start negotiations” towards a ceasefire.
Perhaps more ominous for Ukraine was Trump’s post-call comment that the conditions for peace “will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be”.
Stefan Wolff, professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, interprets this as a sign that the US President is preparing the ground to abandon his failed attempt to play peacemaker.
What exactly that would mean for Kyiv in terms of other forms of US support is far from clear.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
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