Israel's strikes on Iran are unlikely to end soon
The Reaction Daily Briefing will be taking a summer break for a week and returns on Monday 23 June. Our columnists will still be appearing and you can find them on the Substack site.
"Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left,” declared Donald Trump today, as the Middle East teeters on the abyss after Israel launched major overnight strikes on the Islamic Republic.
Tehran is yet to respond to the US President’s ultimatum though it has been clear that it views the Israeli military action to be “a declaration of war”.
Israel’s overnight attacks - launched with the stated aim of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities - were just the beginning. Reports are emerging of fresh Israeli airstrikes this evening while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted today that Operation Rising Lion, to roll back the threat “to Israel’s very survival”, would continue “for as many days as it takes".
Israel’s Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen Eyal Zamir, echoed this sentiment, declaring: “The time has come, we are at the point of no return.”
The operation is on a very different scale to the tit-for-tat strikes between Iran and Israel last year. This time, Israel has inflicted significant damage.
It has hit nuclear enrichment facilities and ballistic missile production sites as well as offices and residential blocks housing senior Iranian military and political leaders. The strikes have killed at least six nuclear scientists and several Iranian generals, including Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). And the Natanz nuclear facility - the principal site for large-scale uranium enrichment - has been significantly damaged.
This operation has been years in the making. Israel views Iran’s advancing nuclear capabilities as an existential threat, warning that it is part of a wider plan to eventually strike it with an atomic bomb. Iran insists that it is not developing nuclear weapons but rather enriching uranium for peaceful civilian purposes of energy generation.
The overnight strikes have highlighted the extraordinary reach of Israeli intelligence. Aside from securing detailed information on Iran’s top military officials and scientists, some of the strikes were launched from inside Iranian territory.
Israel also engaged in a tactical information campaign to take Tehran by surprise. Benjamin Netanyahu was publicly reported as going on holiday to northern Israel for the weekend to give the impression that the IDF was not on the verge of launching military action.
Another reason why the timing came as a shock to the world is because the US and Iran were gearing up for a sixth round of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme on Sunday in Oman.
In fact, Israel’s overnight strikes took place hours after Trump had publicly warned Netanyahu’s government not to attack Iran, telling reporters he would “love to avoid a conflict” and insisting that Washington and Tehran were “fairly close to a pretty good agreement”.
Though perhaps these comments were all part of the charade to catch Iran off guard. The degree of US involvement in Israel’s attack is still unclear.
While America’s top diplomat, Marco Rubio, has sought to distance the US from Israeli actions, insisting “we are not involved in strikes against Iran”, Trump told the Wall Street Journal this afternoon that he was he was informed about Israel's plans ahead of time, adding that it has been "a very successful attack, to put it mildly".
What now?
Iran has already launched around 100 drones towards Israel today which appear to have been largely intercepted. Foreign ministries across the world - Britain included - are calling for restraint while Trump is suggesting that a deal with Iran is still on the table. Tehran has “a second chance” to reach a nuclear agreement to avoid “even more brutal” Israeli attacks, he said today.
Though it’s unclear if Tehran would be willing to hold any further negotiations. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed "severe punishment" for the attack while the newly appointed commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard, Mohammad Pakpour, warned this afternoon: “In retribution for the blood of our fallen commanders, scientists and citizens, the gates of hell will soon be opened upon this child-killing regime”.
If this means that Tehran considers a deal with the US to be firmly off the table, then Iran and Israel find themselves in a rare state of agreement. Netanyahu won’t be enthusiastic about Trump’s suggestion of a return to diplomacy. He appears intent on pressing ahead with Israel’s campaign to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities through military action.
Though, as Tim Marshall writes in Reaction today, without heavier involvement from the US, Israel will damage Iran’s nuclear facilities but it is unlikely to destroy them.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
ON REACTION TODAY
Tim Marshall
Israel can damage Iran’s nuclear sites but it can’t destroy them - without the US
Jenny Hjul
Fishermen’s voices must be heard amid Attenborough ocean propoganda
Gerald Malone
Glyndebourne’s Parsifal is a travesty. No storyline goes unmauled
Neil Collins
Reeves review: how not to spend £113 billion
ALSO KNOW
Israel imposes blockade on West Bank - The Israeli army has implemented a complete lockdown on all Palestinian cities across the occupied West Bank today “until further notice”, erecting barriers, closing off roads and restricting movement.
Rochdale grooming trial - Seven men have been found guilty at Manchester Minshull Street Crown Court today of sexually exploiting two teenage girls who were repeatedly raped and assaulted in Rochdale for five years. After a four-month trial and three weeks of deliberation, a jury returned unanimous guilty verdicts for 50 offences committed by the gang between 2001 and 2006.
Pope appoints first Chinese bishop - Pope Leo has appointed the first Chinese bishop of his papacy, signalling that he wants to keep Vatican-Beijing relations cordial. Chinese officials had some input on the appointment, with Beijing insisting that it must approve the move contrary to the Vatican insistence that it is a papal decision. China has a Catholic population of 10 million.
FIVE THINGS
Netanyahu’s big gamble risks a quicker Iranian bomb, warns Marc Champion, in Bloomberg.
Dominic Cummings on why Westminster must fall, in The Spectator.
Andy Beckett asks why Nigel Farage gets to play British politics on easy mode? In The Guardian.
Is Google about to destroy the web? Thomas Germain in BBC Future.