Gaza ceasefire shows the power of Trump
While hardly a great advocate of Palestinian rights, Trump appears to have been more willing than Biden to exert adequate pressure on Israel’s leadership to reach a deal.
US officials have voiced confidence this evening that a long-awaited Gaza ceasefire will still go ahead on Sunday, after relief turned to nervousness that the complex agreement reached last night could still collapse.
“This has got to get approved by the Israeli government. Netanyahu knows that,” White House national security spokesperson, John Kirby, told reporters, insisting he was “confident” that “these last-minute issues” can be resolved in time.
The prospective deal, hashed out in Doha by Qatari and Egyptian mediators with US backing, could not have come sooner for the two million displaced Palestinians, living under Israeli bombardment for 15 months, or for the 98 Israeli hostages, some of whom are presumed dead, who have been held captive inside the strip by Hamas since October 7.
However, news that Israeli airstrikes killed 70 more people in Gaza today, paired with Benjamin Netanyahu’s cancellation of a cabinet vote on the deal, scheduled for this morning, has raised the question: did officials jump the gun yesterday in announcing that an Israel-Hamas agreement had finally been reached?
The prospective ceasefire and hostage release deal, yet to be signed and sealed, does still require the approval of the Israeli cabinet.
On this, those from the extremist flank of Netanyahu’s government have made it clear where they stand. Last night, Israel’s national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, labelled the deal a “catastrophe”, calling on fellow far-right minister Bezalel Smotrich to join him in leaving the government coalition should the cabinet approve it.
The good news is that, despite this opposition from the likes of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, the vote is expected to pass anyway. And reports are emerging this evening that the Israeli cabinet will now vote on the ceasefire deal tomorrow, after today’s issues were resolved by negotiators in Qatar.
Netanyahu said earlier today that he had cancelled the vote because Hamas was backtracking on yesterday’s agreement and trying to seek last-minute concessions. A Hamas spokesman denied this. It’s thought that the new point of contention was about which Palestinian prisoners are released in exchange for Israeli hostages, with Hamas attempting a last-minute push to include the names of a couple of its highly symbolic members.
Biden’s officials appear confident that these last-minute hurdles won’t ultimately stop either side from seeing the deal through. Though this may have rather more to do with the incoming US administration than it does to do with them.
While the exact details are still murky, it’s thought that the deal agreed is what was first proposed in May 2024, leading to months of unfruitful negotiations.
What changed to finally break the impasse?
For this, Donald Trump has some credit to take.
Last week, the President Elect warned that there would be “all hell to pay” if Israel and Hamas didn’t sign a deal before he takes office on Monday.
On Saturday, his newly appointed Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, reportedly applied heavy pressure on Israel to compromise on key aspects, such as troop withdrawals along the Gaza-Egypt border.
Trump appears to have demonstrated a greater willingness than Biden to exert adequate pressure on Israel’s leadership. Though that’s not to say that the rights of Palestinians rank highly on the agenda of a man who named Jerusalem as Israel’s capital during his last stint in power.
While Trump has played peacemaker for now, it’s unclear what he may have offered Netanyahu in return for signing a deal.
Speculation is swirling that he might have teased Netanyahu with an even greater prize ahead, such as West Bank annexation or allowing the PM to appease his far-right flank and build new Jewish-only settlements in Gaza.
Crucially, while the third stage of the ceasefire agreement is focussed on rebuilding Gaza, the long-term future governance of the strip is not addressed in this deal.
It’s thought that leaving the question of who will control Gaza out of the deal was key to seeing it pass.
But the fact that such an important and contentious issue has been omitted, paired with today’s last-minute friction, is a reminder that the road ahead is going to be very bumpy. This complex agreement could unravel at any moment.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
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