Will Corbynism outlive Corbyn?

Can Jeremy Corbyn’s project outlive its progenitor? The question is increasingly asked even among Corbyn’s greatest fans who usually see any discussion of life after Corbyn as sign of treasonous intent. Even if Labour somehow manages to win next month’s election, or perform well enough not to precipitate immediate resignation, the Labour leader is now 70 and reportedly increasingly worn out by the brutality of modern politics. This worries many Corbyn supporters who fear that the Corbynite project might not outlive their leader.

It was these fears which saw the spectacularly ill-judged attempt to abolish the post of deputy leader in order to prevent the Corbyn-sceptic Tom Watson from taking over should Corbyn resign. These efforts backfired. Up to 35, some say 50 or even 100 MPs, threatened to resign over the issue and the plan even managed to draw rare criticism from former Labour leader Ed Miliband. The botched political assassination also sucked coverage away from the Labour Party conference which was supposed to divert attention from Labour’s internecine feuds to its policy proposals. However, the pro-Corbyn faction did manage to change the rules so that in the event of Labour leader’s resignation whoever becomes the interim leader will be subject to the approval of the Corbynite controlled NEC.

Other efforts have also been made to try to ensure Corbynite survival should Corbyn depart. Labour Students, seen as a centrist bastion, has been abolished. Changes were made to make deselecting MPs easier and to give more grassroots control over selecting new candidates on the assumption the grassroots were Corbyn friendly. This has failed to deliver the desired results.

While pro-Corbyn candidates made some ground most deselection attempts have been fought off and there’s been an unexpected centrist pushback in selecting candidates. As such the Corbynite leadership core has taken further steps. Protestations of their desire to increase intra-party democracy have been revealed as so much hot air as they resort to the same tactics they once decried Blair’s New Labour such as parachuting favoured candidates into safe seats.

As such it seems that even if Corbyn goes soon he will have left his mark on the party. These developments plus changes made last year to reduce the number MPs nominations needed to stand as leader from 15% to 10% means a Corbynite candidate will certainly be in the running to become next Labour leader.

Figures such as Rebecca Long-Bailey (nicknamed Rebecca Wrong-Daily) and Laura Piddock have been suggested. Considering Corbyn’s continued grassroots popularity they may win provided they can see off potential soft left or compromise candidate like Keir Starmer or Angela Rayner. However, no matter who wins it seems likely that certain key tenets of Corbynism will persist while others that have helped torpedo Corbyn’s public popularity will be quickly ditched.

In the most basic terms Labour is unlikely to abandon its current populist economic message and will remain sharply to the left of where it was in the New Labour years. As Corbyn supporters are keen to bring up many current Labour economic policies do poll well. Polls suggest over 50% of voters favour nationalising water, electricity, gas, and the railways. Other policies such as rent caps, higher income taxes on the top 5% of earners, workers seats on boards, scrapping tuition fees, and sharp moves to decarbonise also all poll well. This brings us to the point Corbyn supporters are less keen on, that the main impediment to the hard-left triumphing electorally is their leader. Indeed, polling shows Corbyn’s personal popularity is dire worse than Boris Johnson’s even among 18-24-year olds.

His popularity is dragged down by two big issues. The first is the constant rumbling of the ongoing anti-Semitism scandal in Labour. This ties more broadly to Corbyn’s long history of associating with deeply unsavoury figures so long as they slapped the label anti-imperialist on themselves. The constant drip-drip of scandal gives constant ammunition to Corbyn’s opponents and often drowns out Labour’s attempts to promote its policies.

The second and probably more important issue has been Corbyn’s constant equivocation over Brexit. It would be a cruel dilemma for any Labour leader. Labour MPs sit in some of the most heavily pro-Leave and pro-Remain seats, though the party membership is overwhelmingly pro-Remain. Corbyn’s attempt to thread the needle by saying Labour is pro-Brexit, but wants to negotiate its own deal and then put it to a referendum, has simply angered both camps.

These vulnerabilities have been systematically exacerbated by the way a core coterie of Corbyn’s advisors Seumas Milne, Len McCluskey, Andrew Murray and Karie Murphy have dealt with them, or rather not dealt with them. Tribalistically hard-left they’ve been inclined to dismiss any anti-Semitism as simply anti-Zionism, casting the accusations against Corbyn as smears. They also seem to be part of a Eurosceptic fringe of Labour that inherits the old suspicion of the EU as a capitalist club. As such they’ve been key in maintaining Labour’s hedging approach to Brexit even in the face of overwhelming pressure from the membership and MPs.

These views and approaches find almost no support outside this cabal, which alienates other allies of Corbyn. Andrew Fisher who had masterminded Labour’s 2017 manifesto quit shortly before this year’s party conference and in a letter that was later leaked lambasted the lack of “lack of professionalism, competence and human decency” in the upper echelons of Labour.

Even Corbyn’s old friend the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell has reportedly pushed for a much firmer response on anti-Semitism and openly taken pro-Remain positions. Already signs of a push against them are showing with Karie Murphy having been recently moved from leader’s office to Labour HQ, a move widely seen as an attempt to sideline her. Should Corbyn leave it seems likely she, Milne, and Murray will be quickly pushed out.

Once this is done Labour would be under immediate pressure to come down hard on anti-Semitism in its ranks. The new Labour leader will probably not have Corbyn’s history of publicly supporting far-left extremists and hardline Islamists.

On Brexit Labour could either adopt an unequivocally pro-Remain stance, or if Johnson’s deal looks set to pass accept it, hope the urgency of the difficult issue fades, or become the party advocating the closest possible links with the EU via Single Market and Customs Union membership.

In such circumstances Labour can expect to recover in the polls and may yet come to power with a Corbynite economic manifesto. A few of his most politically dubious associates are at risk but Corbynism looks likely to outlive Corbyn.