Why has the government changed its tune on restrictions? – Reaction Briefing

Speaking at last night’s Downing Street press conference, Boris Johnson announced an end to almost all Covid restrictions in England on 19 July, moving the country out of line with much of the rest of the world where restrictions remain to combat infections.

He warned that more people would die but said that he was trying to move from “government diktat” to personal responsibility. This is a far cry from the government’s initial messaging of “stay home, protect the NHS, save lives” – but why has the government changed its tune? And what will happen after “Freedom Day”? Here’s what you need to know.

What does the data show?

In essence, Britain is opening up just as the third wave is beginning to take hold. Cases have risen steeply over the last month, driven by the more transmissible Delta variant. The seven-day average on 1 June was 4,147 and by 1 July it was about six times higher at 24,809.

But crucially, the UK’s swift vaccine rollout has started to weaken the link between infections and hospitalisations and deaths.

The latest seven-day average for daily deaths is 17.4, while 1,905 people were in hospital with Covid on 1 July. This is more than double the 927 being treated on 1 June, but is a fraction of the mid-January tally when nearly 40,000 people were in hospital and there were fears the NHS could be overwhelmed.

Predictions about what will happen after 19 July vary. Johnson warned cases could hit 50,000 a day, the new Health Secretary Sajid Javid said 100,000 a day, whereas “Professor lockdown” and Sage member Neil Ferguson told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that cases could reach 150,000 to 200,000 a day.

Yet Professor Ferguson assured the programme that the UK’s rapid vaccine rollout would stop high infection levels translating into hospitalisations and deaths, with fatalities expected to be down “tenfold” compared to the last wave.

What role has the new health secretary had on the plans to unlock?

While Matt Hancock was on the pro-lockdown side of the Cabinet table, his replacement, Sajid Javid, has shifted the balance in Cabinet’s “Quad” – comprising of the PM, Chancellor Rishi Sunak, former Health Secretary Matt Hancock and Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove – in an anti-lockdown direction.

Javid vowed to get the nation back to normal “as soon and quickly as possible” as he took over Britain’s Covid response and has since said that we can no longer “live in a world where the only thing we are thinking about is COVID”.

His pro-freedom pragmatism has clearly had an impact on the mentality in No 10. Yesterday, the PM outlined a five-point plan for “living with Covid” and asked the country: “If not now, then when?”

What alternatives do the government have?

Although Sir Keir Starmer has branded the so-called “big bang” easing of restrictions on 19 July “reckless,” the PM, Cabinet members and the government’s scientific advisors painstakingly weighed up the options to reach this decision.

Delaying the unlocking was seen as ineffective because, with the country already enjoying greater freedoms, cases would continue to rise anyway – and worse, this option could shift pressure on the NHS to the more precarious winter months.

Labour’s position of proceeding with the 19 July date but with some restrictions remaining in place was also seen as flawed because, with the third wave already underway, minor measures would do little to prevent the spread of the virus.

The only other option was to implement drastic lockdown-style measures again now, which – with the vast majority of the most vulnerable people now fully vaccinated – would have prompted a major backlash.

What will happen after 19 July?

Both Javid and Johnson have pledged that their roadmap to freedom is “irreversible” and that “there’s no going back” to Covid restrictions. But as “Freedom Day” gets closer, the mood music is changing.

On Monday, Johnson struck a more sombre note – saying the pandemic was “far from over” and promised the government would take “whatever steps necessary to protect the public”.

His cautious tone was echoed by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which released a set of documents warning an increase in Autumn and winter transmissions was “highly likely”.

Javid has also told MPs that ministers will retain powers that allow local authorities to shut down businesses, prohibit certain events, or close outdoor public spaces “in case of a local breakout or in case a new dangerous variant emerges”.