Whitty and Vallance running the show

Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance dashed hopes of a faster easing of restrictions today, telling MPs that “a lot more people will die” if lockdown is eased too soon.

Speaking to the Science and Technology Committee, the advisors warned the situation could “turn bad” very quickly if the roadmap was accelerated and that another Covid surge was inevitable.

Number 10 is facing increasing pressure to speed up the timetable as the stats keep moving in the right direction. Weekly coronavirus deaths in the over 80s in England and Wales have fallen by 79 per cent from a peak five weeks ago, and the number of daily coronavirus cases reported in the UK fell below 5,000 for the first time since September.

But Whitty and Vallance were quick to stamp on any complacency. Vallance said reopening schools this week could push the R number up by between 10 per cent and 50 per cent, while Whitty warned MPs that “all the modelling” suggests that there is going to be a further surge. He said this third wave would ultimately lead to more hospital admissions and deaths, but that the “ratio of cases to deaths will go right down” compared to previous waves of the virus due to the UK’s speedy vaccine rollout.

Echoing the growing clamour from disgruntled Tory backbenchers and their constituents, committee chairman Greg Clark pressed Whitty on whether the “cautious” pace of Boris Johnson’s roadmap was necessary amid falling cases. But Whitty was adamant that the five-week gap between stages was essential to evaluate the impact on infections and transmission.

He told MPs: “If you look at the history of this all around the world, the history of this is not full of countries and individual leaders wishing they had done more, faster. It’s full of leaders who wished they had acted quicker and then been more careful as they take things off.” One of these leaders is Boris Johnson who seems determined not to make the same mistake twice (or thrice?), whatever the cost. It will be difficult to resist pressure though, with numbers plummeting, spring coming and parts of the population desperate to begin proper life again.

Lebanon protests heat up

Protestors have blocked roads with burning tyres across Lebanon for an eighth consecutive day.

The country has been mired in an economic crisis and political deadlock for 18 months. The Lebanese Pound has lost more than 80 per cent of its value against the dollar, sending prices sky-rocketing and living standards plummeting. More than half the population now lives below the poverty line.

The crisis has been made worse by a string of strict lockdowns to prevent the country’s hospitals being overwhelmed.

In a grim echo of the desperation of Mohamed Bouazizi, the Tunisian street vendor whose self-immolation triggered the Arab Spring, a demonstrator poured petrol on himself and tried to set himself alight in the town of Tyre. The civil defence managed to stop him in time.

The country has been rudderless since the government resigned following the blast in Beirut’s port in August which devastated much of the city. President Macron’s visit last year did nothing to get things moving. Until a new cabinet is formed, the reforms needed to trigger billions of dollars of international aid to fix the economy can’t be implemented.

Almighty Dollars

British and global economic prospects have been given a boost today after the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development upgraded its forecasts for most of the world’s bigger countries.

The world economy is likely to expand by 5.6 per cent in 2021, according to the OECD, thanks in part to successful vaccine deployment and Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package which passed in the US Senate over the weekend.

The ripple effect of the enormous “American Rescue Plan” will be felt around the world, including a 0.5 per cent boost to the British economy, which the OECD forecasts to grow by 5.1 per cent this year, up from its previous 4.2 per cent forecast, although the UK’s recovery to pre-pandemic levels is forecast to be the slowest of any G7 nation.

It’s a reminder of just how much money is being pumped into the US economy. The package amounts to 8.5 per cent of US GDP, much bigger than Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s plans.

The danger must be that the Americans have overdone it, that the private sector would recover anyway and the extra stimulus causes overheating and inflation.

Mattie Brignal,
News Editor