What Sub-Saharan Africa's population boom means for the world
Demographic factors will force the rest of the world to start paying much more attention to this often overlooked region.
Sub-Saharan Africa has, in more recent history, been the forgotten region - largely ignored by the great powers, and only of interest in so far as it has resources to extract. Over the last four years, outgoing US president Joe Biden has made just three visits to the region (compared to seven visits to the UK alone), while Trump did not visit a single Sub-Saharan African country during his first term. Trump's reluctance to travel there is perhaps unsurprising given that he reportedly labelled them “shithole” nations.
Demographic factors, however, mean that the rest of the world may soon have to start paying a lot more attention to region.
While much of the world is struggling with low birth rates, fertility rates in Sub-Saharan Africa have remained high, and are currently at 4.32 children per woman. This, combined with falling mortality rates (especially infant mortality rates) due to improved preventative medicine, means that the region is experiencing a population boom, which is likely to continue over the coming decades.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s total population is currently growing at a rate of almost 100 million people every three and a half years. This means that, while its population was just 655 million in 2000, today that figure stands at 1.27 billion, and it is projected to reach 2.09 billion by 2050. Furthermore, due to effects of depopulation across much of the rest of the world, Africa’s share of the world’s total population is also dramatically increasing, from just 10% of the world’s population in 2000, to 21% by 2050. In contrast, by the middle of this century, the EU is projected to make up less 5% of the world’s population.
For certain countries, the impact is predicted to be even more dramatic. Nigeria currently has a population of 237 million, but it is projected to grow by 4.5 million per year between now and 2050. In 2000, Tanzania's population was just 34 million, but this is projected to reach 129 million by 2050, and to overtake Russia in population size by 2053. The UN predicts that, by 2100, four of the top ten states with the largest populations will be in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Such a dramatic increase in population, and a youthful population, should create an economic tailwind for many of these countries. More young people means more workers, more consumers and more entrepreneurs to drive economic growth. Abe Selassie, the Director of the IMF's Africa Department described the population boom as “represent[ing] perhaps the region’s single greatest opportunity.”
Other experts, however, believe that the outcome is likely to be less positive. Many African states already struggle to provide basic services like education which are essential for the developing human capital required for long term economic growth. Research by the UN shows that, in 2015, 88% of children and adolescents in Sub-Saharan Africa did not achieve basic proficiency in reading, compared to 36% in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 14% in Europe. While these countries may have an ever growing number of young people, unless educational opportunities there improve, they are likely to lack the knowledge and skills to allow their economies to move up the value chain.
Global businesses and financial markets seem to share this pessimism about the region's economic prospects. Despite being its most populous country, in 2023 Nigeria received just $1.8bn of inward net foreign direct investment, which is $3bn less than Serbia, a country with a thirtieth of its population.
Also of concern is that much of this population growth is taking place in countries with weak institutions and governments. Sub-Saharan African countries already make up 13 of the top 20 most fragile states in the world according to an index compliled by the Fund for Peace, including many of the fastest growing countries, such as Niger, Chad and the DRC. It is all too easy to imagine how the societal and fiscal stresses and strains caused by burgeoning populations in already weak countries could lead to states collapsing and the outbreak of conflict. Add into this mix the impact of climate change in creating natural disasters and the outcomes could be disastrous.
One likely outcome of this could be an increase in migration flows to Europe and America. Historically, most migration currently takes place within the Sub-Saharan region, but there have still been substantial flows to other parts of the world. Data from the International Organisation for Migration shows that, between 1990 and 2020, the number of African-born migrants living outside the region more than doubled, resulting in 11 million living in Europe, and a further 3 million in North America.
As the population of young people across the region explodes, it’s easy to envisage how this could push people to look to the West, to find better economic opportunities, or, more tragically, to escape conflict and disaster at home.
How to deal with this could be one of the defining political issues for Western governments in the years to come. On the one hand, as many European states enter a period of population decline, the migration of young people from Sub-Saharan Africa could be vital in filling gaps in the labour market. In the UK, the number of staff with African citizenship employed by the NHS has more than doubled in the last eight years. On the other hand, concern over existing levels of immigration is already a contentious political issue, and has led to the emergence of stridently anti-immigration parties and politicians across Europe.
Which path leaders choose to take could have profound implications for both continents. Either way, they won’t be able to ignore Sub-Saharan Africa for much longer.
James Rose is a freelance writer specialising in demographics and politics. His work has previously appeared in The Times, The New European, The Big Issue and Politics.co.uk.