What Russia’s Black Sea blockade means for the global food crisis

Russian naval forces have blockaded the Ukrainian coastline on the Black Sea, preventing Ukraine’s exports from leaving the country.

With Ukrainian produce normally exported worldwide, the blockade could impact global food prices and supply for years to come. Here’s what you need to know.

Why is it a big deal?

Ukraine currently has around 20 million tons of grain stuck in silos at ports like Odesa, with a Russian naval blockade in the Black Sea preventing Ukrainian ships from exporting produce.

Often described as the “breadbasket of Europe,” Ukraine is the biggest supplier of grain to many developing countries, including many in Africa and the Middle East. Food prices in these countries have risen dramatically since Russia’s invasion, as supply from Ukraine, which normally feeds 400 million people globally, has faltered.

Without grain being exported from Ukraine, global food prices are set to rise, with the poorest nations who are the most reliant on Ukrainian produce likely to suffer most.

What has Putin said?

In a phone call with Italy’s Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, on Thursday, Vladimir Putin stipulated that sanctions from the West would have to be lifted before Russia would allow Ukrainian exports.

According to the Kremlin, Putin said that Moscow “is ready to make a significant contribution to overcoming the food crisis through the export of grain and fertilizer on the condition that politically motivated restrictions imposed by the West are lifted.”

The news agency Interfax reported that Andrei Rudenko, the Russian deputy foreign minister, blamed the food crisis on western sanctions: “These are the sanctions that have been imposed against Russia by the US and the EU that interfere with normal free trade, encompassing food products including wheat, fertilisers and others.

How is the West responding?

Western governments are keen to find a way to help Ukrainian exports make it past the blockade. Denmark has committed to sending long range anti-ship missiles to help the Ukrainians break the blockade.

Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, said: “It is completely appalling that Putin is trying to hold the world to ransom, and he is essentially weaponising hunger and lack of food amongst the poorest people around the world.”

EU nations are looking at various options, including transporting grain via rail, but trains can carry very little in comparison to grain freighters.

Lithuania and Estonia, both of which are members of the EU and NATO, have called for a naval “coalition of the willing” to escort Ukrainian cargo ships through the Black Sea and past the Russian blockade – something that would require Ukraine to remove sea mines from around its ports. Ukraine wants assurance that Russian ships will not “sneak” into the harbour and attack Odesa, before it agrees to safe shipping corridors.

What could this mean for the rest of the world?

With Ukrainian grain stuck in Black Sea ports, the shortage will mean global food prices rising sharply. Between them, Ukraine and Russia account for one third of global barley production, as well as half of sunflower oil exports.

The stagnation of Ukrainian grain imports will leave this year’s imminent harvest with nowhere to be stored, as grain silos are still filled with produce from last year.

With poorer countries likely to suffer the most, the World Bank has announced over £9bn in aid for countries in Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe for the next 15 months. The expectation of 40 per cent rises in food prices has led to some exporters, including India, stockpiling their own produce, which will only serve to drive up prices further.