What Japan's new leader means for the world
We can expect Tokyo to continue its deliberate move away from post-war pacifism under Shigeru Ishiba's rule.
Japan elected a new leader today, the hawkish, so-called “military geek” Shigeru Ishiba, signalling that we can expect the country to continue its deliberate move away from post-war pacifism.
It’s fifth time lucky for 67-year-old Ishiba, a former defence minister and moderate conservative, who has finally been elected to head Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) following several unsuccessful past leadership bids.
He will take over from outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who has chosen to step down after being embroiled in a corruption scandal within the LDP, the party which has governed Japan almost interrupted for decades.
Japan’s new PM will face big domestic challenges, namely rescuing the plummeting currency of the world’s fourth largest economy. Today, the yen recovered some earlier losses following the victory of Ishiba, who is seen as a critic of Japan’s past aggressive monetary stimulus.
As for foreign policy, Ishiba’s appointment will likely mean a continuation of the outgoing Kishida’s approach. Though, in defence terms, this continuity means pressing ahead with the big changes already afoot.
Over the past three years of Kishida’s leadership, Japan - America’s closest Pacific ally - has undergone more change in its foreign policy posture than at any other time since the Second World War. It has doubled its defence spending over five years to 2 per cent of GDP and disavowed pacifism by setting aside decades of self-imposed restraints on its own military.
Some fairly menacing neighbours explain the change of tack.
Not only is Tokyo contending with an increasingly assertive China, it also has North Korea to worry about, with Kim Jong Un flexing his growing nuclear weapons stockpile, and liberally firing tests towards the sea of Japan.
As a result, Tokyo is not only beefing up its own defences but strengthening military alliances too. Not just with Washington but with other US allies in the Indo-Pacific region too: the Philippines and Australia and even South Korea too, despite their fraught bilateral history.
Ishiba has long pushed for a more robust Japanese defense posture, and he has already riled up China by calling for Japan to lead the creation of an “Asian version of NATO”.
Though Ishiba is not the candidate who would have upset Beijing the most. His opponent Takaichi - who would have become Japan’s first female prime minister had she prevailed - is even more hawkish on China.
Takaichi has claimed that she would visit the infamous Yasukuni Shrine - a symbol of Japan’s wartime aggression that is a highly sensitive issue in Sino-Japanese relations - thus laying a dangerous potential flashpoint for Japan's relations with its Asian neighbours. Some in Tokyo were fearful that her highly aggressive stance towards Beijing would have inflamed tensions to an unnecessarily risky degree.
Ishiba, while a little more moderate than Takaichi in his stance, is expected to continue Kishida’s policy orientation of aligning with the US to contain China and voicing support for Taiwan’s democracy.
That said, any continuation will depend on enduring cooperation from Washington too.
At the UN this week, Kishida used his final speech to urge the US not to retreat inwards and abandon its global responsibilities.
“The international community is at a historical inflection point,” he warned, adding: “Today’s Ukraine could be East Asia tomorrow”.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
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