Voters expect the UK’s departure from the UK to bring about national renewal. The narrow but decisive victory for leave, in the face of warnings of dire economic consequences from big business, the Treasury, the IMF and numerous others, reflected a deep concern, particularly among people on low incomes, that the country wasn’t working for them.
Presuming the UK leaves the EU with some sort of deal next spring (still the most likely outcome despite Theresa May’s current difficulties), the majority of voters will immediately begin to ask the question: what sort of country do we now want to be? This switch of focus has the potential to unlock valuable reserves of political energy, and bring people back together. After March 2019 most of us will cease to be leavers and remainers, instead we will be fellow citizens of a country whose direction of travel is now settled, and whose future is now in our hands.
I know many people who voted remain at the referendum and would still prefer to stay in the EU but who also recognise the potential opportunity for Britain in ‘taking back control’. Once the UK is out of the EU, they too will want to contribute to a debate about how we govern ourselves, how wealth is created and shared in the future, and how we project our values and influence around the world.
Purists on both sides of the argument risk being left behind. Hardcore opponents of Brexit mock ‘take back control’ as crude populism, meaningless in an age of global supply chains and overlapping, multilateral engagements; these people will continue to try and reverse the referendum result. And there will be those on the leave side who see a deal with Brussels as an unacceptable fudge that neither delivers the mandate of the referendum nor returns enough control; the force of these arguments will prevent some leavers from moving on too.
But imagine there is a deal, and at the end of March a sense of departure, and separation. Negotiations between London and Brussels will grind on into the detail of the future UK-EU relationship and a transition period that will pre-occupy Westminster and Whitehall hour-by-hour, day-by-day for months. Slowly, our politicians and civil servants will adapt to what it means to be a wholly self-governing nation in the uncertain context of the world in 2019. Business, farmers and university vice-chancellors will wait impatiently for clarity and fresh instructions. And tens of millions of voters will expect politicians to start talking about what happens next.
This restlessness creates enormous opportunity, and threat, for the main political parties. For the Conservatives, Brexit is a poisoned chalice. Delivering it in the face of so much difficulty is a true expression of Theresa May’s sense of duty, but the process could still shatter her leadership, and it has already divided her MPs, splintered the coalition that gave David Cameron a majority in 2015 and associated the Conservative brand with incompetence and indifference towards most people’s priorities. A ‘successful Brexit’ for the Prime Minister will almost certainly prompt her colleagues to try and push her out of Downing Street, triggering an ill-timed Tory leadership election. If Theresa May does go, a new leader may not be in post until October 2019, more than three years after the referendum result and less than 3 years before the next general election.
Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn can stand back from the Brexit shambles and position Labour as the party best placed to implement change. In truth the Labour family is divided on both Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership but out of the spotlight these squabbles carry on largely un-seen. One intangible advantage for Labour is timing: the party has been out of power since 2010, and the claim that it is Labour’s turn to govern could resonate with swing voters. The Party’s polished Our Town advert neatly aligns nostalgia for Britain pre-globalisation with the damage done to communities by Tory austerity and a promise of a fairer, more prosperous and generous-spirited country after Brexit.
With over half a million members, Labour can position itself as an energetic movement with shoulders wide enough to deliver change in every town and city in the country. According to the House of Commons Library, Conservative membership was 124,000 in April 2018 with an average age of 58. The difference in the size and reach of the parties’ membership will matter as we enter a post-Brexit political context. Social and workplace changes driven by globalisation and technology have left millions living with a sense of isolation, occupying communities that feel fragmented and lacking in purpose (Labour’s Our Town says that Britain’s communities have had ‘the heart ripped out of them’). Seen from these communities, Westminster politics appears bafflingly tribal, rude and inward-looking. To win trust, both political parties will need to make a meaningful connection with these voters in their communities, and demonstrate that they can act as drivers of individual and community renewal.
If ‘take back control’ is the mandate of the 2016 referendum, what should it actually mean for these millions of disadvantaged voters? Maurice Glasman, the Labour Peer and leave supporter, believes that they want to see “that family, place and work—the things that matter to them—matter to their rulers.” Michael Turner, Research Director at BMG, a polling firm, identifies three common themes emerging from the vast amount of qualitative and quantitative research carried out since June 2016: voters want the opportunity to create more wealth and a better standard of living for themselves and their communities, they want their communities to be able to take more decisions about issues affecting them, and they want to live in stronger, more cohesive communities.
After March 2019 we need to focus on building a society that is wealthier, fairer and more united. This is the challenge facing everyone in Britain. Most voters are impatient for change. Both political parties will need to prove why they should be trusted with national renewal. Positioned outside the Brexit negotiations, Labour has the advantage. Changing leader won’t be enough for the Tories; to re-build a winning voter coalition the party will also need to learn a new way of practising local politics. The failure of David Cameron’s Big Society to take root demonstrates that a Conservative programme of community organisation and action must be able to flourish without the patronage of the leader’s office. Success – for either party – will require a willingness to listen to voters, the ability to serve their interests with sincerity and efficiency, and time.