US election: The unthinkable seems to have happened

Goodbye America, it was nice knowing you. Donald Trump is almost certainly going to be the next President of the United States, barring a reverse for Trump in the remaining states and a shock. Hillary Clinton’s much vaunted ground game in the key states, and technological expertise, turned out to be no use whatsoever. The miracle, the surge for Trump that was hidden from pollsters, happened. As I write he has 244 votes in the electoral college according to the BBC, and more according to some of the US networks. He is almost guaranteed to get to the magic 270.

Trump won Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. Pennsylvania looks, as of now, to be heading Trump’s way. The surge of hispanic voters in certain states appears to have been eclipsed by working class whites. In addition, Trump seems to have broken into the northern states heavily dependent on manufacturing and traditional industries.

John Podesta, the chair of the troubled Clinton campaign, has just sent the crowd home at the Clinton rally saying that there will be no immediate statement.

The shock here is palpable. Earlier, New York around the site of the Trump party looked like the opening scene of a disaster movie, with massive security. At Clinton HQ, catastrophe is being digested and reporters say nothing has been heard for four hours. Trump is still to speak but he has – almost certainly – pulled off the win of the century. In place of a sophisticated operation he offered a rambling populist elongated rant and a howl of rage. It worked.

What does his likely victory mean? Some quick thoughts:

1) Trump has reinvented electoral politics and redefined campaigning in the most extraordinary fashion. The Clinton/Blair/Cameron model of carefully calibrated messaging is beyond bust. Here was a deplorable candidate who broke all the rules that have applied for the last 25 years. And he won.

2) Hillary Clinton was a truly dreadful candidate. In a state such as Maine, which Obama won by 15 points in 2012, she held on by only 3 points. She had been around for too long – on US TV pontificating for 25 years – and annoyed the voters to the point that many simply wanted her gone. That is to say nothing of how little trust key voters had in her.

3) Lies seem to be ok, and that seems not to bother tens of millions of Americans. Sad, as Trump would say.

4) More war on the press. Trump’s battle with the media is out of control and he has no understanding of what the freedom of the press means. Expect all manner of unconstitutional chicanery. In the campaign the vain Trump learnt that he could say and do anything and get away with it.

5) The Democratic party is in ruins after the Obama era if Trump takes the Presidency and the Republicans hold onto the Senate and the House. Where is the leader of the future? What’s the agenda that can reach sufficient voters?

6) This is a potential disaster for the West. Putin will be delighted; hacking and leaking works; the FBI is discredited; Western Europe will feel a chill wind because it cannot trust the US; and the markets are opening in London.

7) And the good news is… er… um… I can’t think of anything.