Ukraine pushes forwards with daring Kursk invasion

Russia remains on the back foot as Ukraine’s audacious invasion enters its ninth day.

Just after noon, Zelensky announced that his forces are “advancing in the Kursk region, one to two kilometers in various areas since the beginning of the day”. He added: “We have captured more than 100 Russian servicemen during this period”.

The self-reported successes are affirmed by multiple geolocatable clips showing Ukrainian forces triumphantly strolling through the town of Sudzha and other settlements deeper in the territory. Kyiv now claims control over 386 square miles of Russia. 

Gains by ground forces this morning followed a massive drone and missile attack on several regions of Russia overnight. At least four airfields were targeted, with footage of one strike revealing the destruction of fighter jets on a runway a staggering 407 miles deep into Russia. 

The consistent, successful targeting of airfields, hangars, and ammo depots indicates a main focus of Ukraine’s strategy is to neutralize the Su-34 fighter-bombers responsible for the notorious and deadly glide-bomb attacks. In a celebratory post on Telegram today, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, alleged his forces downed one such £30mn Su-34 as it flew over the Kursk region.

A second Russian region, Belgorod, has declared a state of emergency today following last night’s strikes and ongoing artillery barrages. The Oblast’s Governor requested a federal declaration as well, amid an “extremely difficult situation”, in which “houses were destroyed, civilians died and were injured”. 

Putin’s allegations that the “large-scale Ukrainian provocation” has been indiscriminate in its targeting of civilians were parroted by his foreign ministry, who announced today that due to the “terrorist actions” of Kyiv, the prospect of peace talks will be put on a “long pause”. 

Ukraine’s foreign ministry outlined its demands yesterday, stating, “the sooner Russia agrees to restore a just peace, the sooner Ukrainian raids on Russian territory will stop”, alluding to a negotiated settlement involving a trade of captured territory.

Zelensky also asserted that the mission’s objectives are not to terrorize Russian civilians, but rather to “prove once again that we, Ukrainians, are capable of achieving our goals in any situation — capable of defending our interests and our independence”.

Zelensky’s blitz is not only a declaration of Ukrainian independence from Russia, but also signals its autonomy from Western discretion. Leaders such as Germany’s Olaf Sholz once agonized over sending Ukraine Leopard II tanks, fearing major escalation if the iron-cross-donning armoured vehicles were used to cross into Russian territory. However, now Ukraine has forged its own path, defying Scholz’s initial apprehensiveness and using the same tanks in its Kursk incursion. 

Numerous other Western policymakers have fretted over potential Russian retaliation on NATO or possible nuclear escalation upon the use of various arms against Russia, ranging from the Taurus missile to the F-16 fighter jet. Zelensky’s incursion cleverly calls out this bluff, by showcasing his enemy’s trepidation and limitations. 

Despite initial victories, Zelensky’s gamble could still prove costly. In a post on X this afternoon, the leader reassured, “We are not forgetting our eastern front for a second”. However, his affirmations run contrary to reports from soldiers, who said they’ve been redirected from Ukraine’s Donetsk frontline to the fight in Kursk. 

Russia’s assault on the critical supply juncture of Pokrovsk and the high-ground fortress Chasiv Yar remains fierce despite reports that Putin has also maneuvered troops away from Donetsk to defend the Russian homeland. 

All sides are thus faced with difficult choices in the coming days. If Zelensky pushes his luck in Kursk, his forces may be routed in Donetsk. If he ramps up air attacks deep into Russia he may save his nation from glide-bombs, but could irritate US leaders who still “don’t support long-range attacks into Russia”.

For Putin, the humiliating offensive needs to be brought to heel, however, if he moves elite troops from the Eastern front, he may jeopardize the painstaking gains of the last few years. 

While the day’s events cannot answer all of these questions, they do reveal that the Russians will struggle to dislodge the invaders anytime soon, and the West is going to have to get more comfortable with a determined, independent Ukrainian fighting force.

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