Truss v Macron: can they work together or must it be pistols at dawn?

It is easy to forget, amid the ongoing melodrama that is Britain’s Conservative government, that other countries have their problems, too. Not just Ukraine, engaged in its life and death struggle with Russia, but Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, in fact the entire European Union, including, of course, France. 

Emmanuel Macron is back in harness now that the summer is over, unlike the National Assembly, which doesn’t get down to full-time work until October. Might he usefully fill at least part of the the gap by travelling to London or else hosting Liz Truss for talks at the Élysée? Both sides would stand to benefit from any resulting accord, but the potential for fireworks is alarming. 

Macron’s in-tray is full-to-overflowing. On the Ukraine front, as Truss may shortly discover, a big part of the problem is keeping the public onboard. Short wars are exciting; long-drawn-out conflicts are of abiding interest only to those immediately involved. Where they involve sacrifices that bring no obvious short-term benefits, those looking on from afar tend to start counting the cost. 

Macron did not have a good war in the early days of the Russian invasion. He naively assumed that Vladimir Putin was a man with whom he could do business. The image of him at the far end of Putin’s unfeasibly long negotiating table, with the Russian warlord at the other, was at least as absurd as that of Boris Johnson suspended on a trip wire over the Thames, but far more serious. 

Since then, he has recovered somewhat, giving support to Johnson’s hard line on the need for absolute victory while still throwing out feelers to Moscow that one of these days, when the time is right, may just be picked up. How he will partner with the new British PM on Ukraine could be a vital piece in the puzzle. Macron will be keenly aware that Truss, as her country’s outgoing foreign secretary, is already up to speed on the subject and in no mood to take guidance from a man she, in any case, instinctively distrusts. 

If anything, Truss will see herself as the senior partner – Churchill to Macron’s De Gaulle – on the Ukrainian question. She believes to the core of her being that the UK has got it right on Russia and Ukraine and that a subordinate role for France, not unlike that of the Free French in the Second World War, is the best she can offer. 

On relations with the Europe in general, the new British leader might fancy herself more as Margaret Thatcher, with Macron this time as Jacques Delors, whose tenure as President of the European Commission did much to establish the parameters of Britain’s confrontation with Europe. But will she go the full Iron Lady, telling the President that if he expects her to give ground on the Northern Ireland Protocol, her response will be “No! No! No!”, or will she, instead, come up with her version of Thatcher’s Bruges speech, setting out her vision for a long-term working relationship? 

During her victory address on Monday, Truss made no reference to Northern Ireland – a fact that did not go unnoticed in Belfast, where the Democratic Unionist Party has made the protocol’s revocation the condition of its return to the Stormont Assembly and its power-sharing Executive. 

Is it possible ­– unlikely as it seems – that the PM is considering a reverse ferret, in which she embraces negotiation on the terms of the deal as a means of opening the door to a new era of pragmatic engagement with the EU? If so, she will find that Brussels is more than willing to reciprocate, resulting in a patched-up protocol that gives offence only to the hardliners of the DUP, a group that at a time of crisis on all fronts is far down Downing Street’s list of priorities. 

We may soon know. The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, sponsored by Truss, which would unilaterally dispense with the central provisions of the deal signed and ratified in 2020 is currently stuck in the House of Lords but could become law at some point next year, opening the path to a debilitating trade war between Britain and the EU. 

As far as Truss is concerned, Macron is the leader she most has to persuade, or browbeat, to abandon the position that the protocol is inseparable from the UK-EU accommodation as a whole. She is not thought to be optimistic that an understanding with the French leader can be reached – thus her recent comment to the effect that the jury is out on the issue of Macron as friend or foe of the UK. But she may give it a go all the same, cueing a meltdown of the DUP. 

An issue sure to be at least as difficult, and as proof against diplomatic resolution, is illegal immigration, specifically the one thousand or more asylum-seekers and economic chancers who each day set sail from the coast of France bound for Kent. The exodus is clearly unlawful, yet it is also, it seems, unstoppable. 

What is Liz Truss going to do about it, and what does she expect Emmanuel Macron to do to assist her? Will she order the Navy and Border Force to sink the migrants’ boats? No. She is not a monster and she would not survive the ensuing uproar. So will she somehow turn the unwanted migrants around and send them back to France? No. How would she do that? Would she order the Navy into French territorial waters? It is unthinkable. Does she seriously believe that she can send them by the planeload to Rwanda? If so, how many and how often? It has to be said that the auguries so far are not encouraging. 

France’s role in the crisis is obvious. Smuggling gangs operate freely in France. Boats and lifejackets for those setting out were until recently bought openly in the coastal resorts of the Pas de Calais. The French authorities are sympathetic to the British position. The gendarmerie patrols the beaches and interrupts maybe a quarter of the intended sailings. But what can they hope to achieve when for every boat they turn back and every smuggler they arrest, two more take their place? 

Truss will argue that illegals in France are a French problem that cannot be offloaded to the UK. Macron’s retort will be two-fold: first, that, due to its lax labour laws and levels of benefits, England is believed by millions of Africans, Asians and others to be the Promised Land; and second, that France, with its immigrant population numbering 6.5 million, has this year alone granted residence permits to some 76,000 new arrivals. In other words, you have a problem and we have a problem and making your problem our problem is not our idea of a solution. 

Which (if we leave the fisheries dispute to another day, preferably another year) only leaves the small matter of cooperating on energy shortages. Britain has put itself in the ludicrous position of offshoring much of its gas reserves to storage facilities in Europe. Its one remaining large-scale facility is, into the bargain, owned and run by Storengy of France. Now, having argued that gas was just so last century, the UK is desperate to secure supplies to see it through the winter. 

France, by contrast, is awash with storage and is confident that it will have stockpiled all the gas it needs to meet demand by mid-November at the latest. Crucially, it also plans to have all, or nearly all, of its 56 nuclear reactors in operation before the end of the year. Some 40 per cent of these were offline when the current energy crisis kicked off in the spring, but nearly all are expected to be back in service by Christmas, providing the country with more than 70 per cent of the electricity it uses, with most the rest provided by solar, wind and wavepower. 

Some of what could be France’s excess electricity could be sold to the UK, but for this to happen, both sides have to show willing. Macron is much more inclined to do a deal with gas-starved Germany, thus boosting his stock with Olaf Scholz while showing European solidarity. 

France could do with the cash. That’s for sure. There is much grumbling across the country about the rising cost of everyday goods in the shops. But caps have been placed on the price of petrol and diesel at the pumps and the nation is not about to freeze. 

Truss will not come to Macron cap in hand. That is not her way. She will, however, be painfully aware that France has, by and large, got energy right and that much of the UK is dependent on the French energy giant EDF, including the construction and operation of all future nuclear plants such as that at Hinkley Point C. EDF is now 100 per cent state-owned and Macron is head of state. 

One in the eye for Britain, you might think, in consideration of which Liz Truss, in her worst nightmare, could yet find herself in the role of Harold Godwinson, with Macron as Guillaume le Conquérant.