Truss Tories tanking – Labour takes 33pt poll lead

Labour has surged to a 33-point lead over the Conservatives amid the fiscal earthquake triggered by Liz Truss’s tax-cutting budget. This is thought to be the largest poll lead enjoyed by any party with any pollster since the late 1990s.

According to a bombshell new YouGov survey for The Times, only 37 per cent of 2019 Conservative voters plan to stick with the party. Almost three times as many voters said Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer would make the best prime minister as the number who picked Liz Truss. 

While the pound has recovered ever so slightly today – up to $1.10 – voter perception of Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax cuts seems to be deteriorating further: only 10 per cent of those polled see the government’s package as fair, down from 19 per cent on Monday.

But it seems the lady’s not for turning. 

Truss and her team are doubling down on their explosive budget. 

Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, insisted this afternoon that the government was “sticking to the growth plan.” And, earlier in the day, Truss finally broke her silence during a punishing hour-long morning media round, in which she declared she would not reverse any of the measures. 

 “I have to do what I believe is right for the country and what is going to help move our country forward,” said the PM. 

In fact, Number 10’s new incumbent appeared to be in denial that the £45bn worth of tax cuts announced on Friday were the main cause of the market mania.

While insisting the government was working “very closely” with the Bank of England, she failed to acknowledge that it was her budget which had forced the Bank to take such unprecedented intervention in the gilts market to prop up prices. (Action which was vital to prevent an estimated £1tn being wiped from pension funds, according to financial firm Shard Capital.)

Instead, President Putin proved a useful scapegoat. Record falls in the pound and surging UK borrowing costs, were the result of “a difficult global economic situation”, sparked by the war in Ukraine, she claimed.

That said, while Truss and her Chancellor show no sign of U-turning on any of their budget policies, a clue emerged this afternoon that Kwarteng might still reconsider the date on which he provides more detail on them. 

In the Chancellor’s medium-term fiscal plan, he will explain how the government intends to meet its fiscal rules and bring debt down in the medium term, as well as publishing an economic forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). 

This morning, Chris Philp, the chief secretary to the Treasury, insisted: “The statement is fixed for November 23rd.” Yet hours later, the OBR hinted that Kwarteng may bow to the pressure to bring forward the date. In a statement, the OBR said that the Chancellor had asked them to produce a first draft of its economic forecasts by 7 October. 

The lack of backing from an independent body such as the OBR is one of the key factors contributing to the unease around the budget. If Truss isn’t willing to reverse any policies, then securing this is one of the best remaining options to settle the markets. Provided that the OBR is able to offer up any reassuring data.

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