Trump-Starmer talks: a win for bilateral relations but not for Ukraine
Keir Starmer embarked on the most challenging diplomatic mission of his career so far today, as he sought to persuade Donald Trump not to abandon the Euro-Atalantic security architecture in place since the end of the Second World War.
Did he succeed?
Not exactly.
When it comes to bilateral relations, Starmer will have been delighted by the level of warmth emanating from the US president.
“We get along very famously… he’s a special man”, Trump said of the British Prime Minister.
The US President’s genuine affection for the United Kingdom, his mother’s birthplace, shone through: “It’s a wonderful country that I know very well, I’m there a lot”.
As a long-time admirer of the Royal Family, he expressed delight at Starmer handing him an invitation for a “historic” second state visit on behalf of King Charles. “One person has never been extended that honour before,” Trump boasted to reporters in their post-talks press conference.
The US President also hinted that Britain may avoid the sort of bruising tariffs he has threatened to whack on Brussels, adding it’s “a very different place” where he has investments.
Another surprise was Trump seemingly signalling his approval of the UK’s contentious Chagos deal: “I think we'll be inclined to go along with your country”.
But what about progress on Ukraine?
Trump insisted his “efforts to end the bloody and horrible war” are progressing “rapidly” and he rowed back on his criticism of Zelensky. When asked by the BBC’s Chris Mason if he still considers the Ukrainian president to be a dictator, he replied: “Did I say that? I can’t believe I said that. Next question.”
Yet, when it comes to the ultimate metric of success for today’s meeting - Starmer’s ability to get a firm military commitment from Washington that it will ensure any Ukraine peace deal it negotiates holds - Starmer failed, just as Macron did on Monday.
“I have confidence if we make a deal it’s gunna hold… we’re gunna have a very successful peace, a long-lasting peace”, said Trump, who refused to make any commitment that the US will intervene if Russia violates the peace deal and comes for Kyiv again.
Both Starmer and Macron have floated the idea of putting troops on the ground in Ukraine - a “European peacekeeping force” - to ensure any Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is respected. But Starmer has been clear: any peacekeeping force must have Washington’s backing “because only the US can deter Putin from attacking again”. While the US has already ruled out putting boots on the ground in Ukraine, there are other ways that the world’s most powerful military could help a potential peacekeeping force, providing it with air cover or intelligence, for instance.
Trump did not outwardly reject this possibility but his non-commital response was, essentially, let’s cross that bridge when we come to it. “You’re talking about a peacekeeping force, we have to make a deal first,” the US President told reporters.
He also suggested that the US-Ukraine minerals deal, which he is preparing to sign with Zelensky at the White House tomorrow, is a security guarantee in and of itself.
How so? “We’re gunna be at the site… we’ll be dig dig digging”, said Trump, who reasoned that Russia wouldn’t dare to attack Ukraine if Americans are on the ground working for companies involved in the extraction process: “It’s a backstop, you could say, I don’t think anybody’s going to play around if we’re there with a lot of workers”.
Not entirely illogical. But far from the iron-clad security guarantee that Ukraine - and Europe - needs.
Starmer will be pleased by just what a friendly reception he enjoyed from President Trump at the Oval Office today. Perhaps helped by his surprise announcement earlier this week to raise UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027.
However, the meeting gives a good indication that Zelensly’s chances of persuading Trump to add an explicit security guarantee to the text of the US-Ukraine minerals deal tomorrow are decidedly slim.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
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FIVE THINGS
1. Only 6% of gen Z actually favour dictatorship – not half, as some reports would have you believe. Bobby Duffy in The Conversation.
2. The spending review could sink Labour. Tom Clark in Prospect.
3. How big is Russia’s appetite for upheaval? Despite Trump’s embrace, there are limits to Moscow’s disruptive impulses. Hanna Notte in Foreign Affairs.
4. The Economist – Does Britain’s nuclear deterrent have a Trump-shaped problem?
5. Gene Hackman, Hollywood’s consummate everyman, dies at 95. Robert Berkvist in The New York Times.