While much is being made of what a busy time Donald Trump has had since taking office, he has missed one important deadline: his campaign pledge to end the Russia-Ukraine war in just 24 hours is yet to bear fruit.
Today, 1,064 days on from Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Trump urged the Russian leader to end his “ridiculous war”, threatening to whack further sanctions on Moscow if he does not come to the negotiating table.
The US president insisted again this week that he will be talking directly with Putin “very soon”, though a date for the tete-a-tete is still not confirmed.
Playing peacebroker in Europe is shaping up to be a little more complex than Trump had expected. “The situation is a tough one”, he admitted himself.
Hence why he is looking to a somewhat unlikely figure for help: Xi Jinping.
Speaking outside the White House yesterday, Trump revealed that he had recently pressed the Chinese president to intervene to stop the Ukraine war: "He's got a lot of ... power, like we have a lot of power. I said, 'You ought to get it settled,’” Trump told reporters, as he recounted his recent phone call with Xi.
This is the second time recently that Trump has invoked Beijing’s help. Last month, after meeting Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris, he posted on TruthSocial: “There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin …China can help.”
The assistance he’s hoping for on this particular matter may go some way to explain Trump’s unexpected move of inviting Xi to his inauguration ceremony. (Xi didn’t attend but sent his Vice-President).
For Trump to be so openly acknowledging the vital influence held by a competing superpower - and his need for its help- may seem out of character.
Certainly many other western leaders have interpreted any attempts by China to act as a global peacemaker as simply a way of advancing its rivalry with the US. Yet now Trump is asking it to play a more active peacemaking role.
Then again, Trump is right to identify Xi as the leader with the most leverage over Putin.
Beijing remains Moscow’s key economic ally, feeding the Kremlin’s war machine with its purchases of sanctioned Russian goods, and it has refrained from directly criticising the Kremlin. Hence why China - despite adopting an officially “neutral” position on the war - is often accused of tacitly supporting Russia.
Will China agree to help Trump out, and pile pressure on Putin to come to the negotiating table?
It’s unclear how much incentive Xi has to do so.
That Beijing took it upon itself in March 2023 to draw up its own twelve-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war certainly gives off the impression that it is invested in seeking peace in Europe.
However, what we must also remember is that this so-called roadmap to peace was vague enough to be rendered virtually useless, and the vagueness was intentional.
The document reiterated Beijing’s support for the UN Charter and the territorial integrity of states while condemning unilateral sanctions, and criticising the expansion of US-led military alliances. But, as Alexander Gabuev, Director of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, pointed out at the time: it lacked specifics about burning issues such as resolving the territorial dispute between Kyiv and Moscow or security guarantees for Ukraine. And the language of the document did not bind anyone to anything, Beijing included.
“China’s vague plan”, Gabuev argued, was “aimed not at actually ending the war, but at impressing the developing world and rebutting accusations that Beijing has become a silent accomplice to Moscow.”
If any leader has enough hold over Putin to force him to the negotiating table, it is probably Xi. But he arguably lacks the will to do so.
Beijing does’t want to become deeply embroiled in the conflict. Besides, if a peace deal contributed to Russia’s international rehabilitation, and the lifting of western sanctions on Moscow, that’s not necessarily in China’s interests either. It would reduce Putin’s reliance on Xi - and perhaps even increase the price it pays for Moscow’s oil and gas if Russia was able to return openly to other markets.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
ON REACTION TODAY
Alexandra Luca
I worked as a Meta fact-checker - Community Notes is no adequate replacement
Gerald Warner
Reflections on an American coronation
ALSO KNOW
Russian ship forced out of British waters - A Royal Navy submarine forced a Russian ship which is suspected of spying on Britain’s undersea cables and critical infrastructure out of national waters. It stayed in UK waters for around 24 hours this week, before being forced out into Dutch waters.
Trump ends DEI government jobs - Trump has ordered the federal agency to put diversity staff on paid leave “immediately”, after issuing an executive order on Tuesday calling for an end to “dangerous, demeaning and immoral” DEI hiring practices. He has also instructed the attorney general to deter the private sector from adopting or continuing DEI initiatives.
Government borrowing soars - According to new figures out today, UK borrowing reached £17.8bn last month, £10.1bn more than the previous December and the highest amount in four years. This is also higher than the £14.6bn forecast by the OBR.
“Get over” Trump’s tariffs, says JP Morgan boss - James Dimon, CEO of the world’s biggest bank, claimed today that the Trump administration is attempting to use tariffs as a tool to “bring people to the table” to renegotiate better trade terms. He encouraged people to have faith in Trump’s plan, insisting: “National security trumps a little bit more inflation”.
Prince Harry settles with News Group Newspapers - Rupert Murdoch’s UK tabloids apologised today for decades of intrusion into the Prince’s life and payed substantial damages in the privacy invasion lawsuit. They also apologised for the impact of their intrusion on the late Princess Diana’s life.
FIVE THINGS
Donald Trump vs the ‘deep state’: the president’s vendetta agenda takes shape, writes Financial Times
The Atlantic on whether Elon Musk really did do the Nazi salute on stage
The university that shaped Russia’s intervention in Syria. Andrew Ryvkin in New Lines Magazine
Meyrick Chapman on the Fed’s decision to leave the Green Blob
The political calculations that allowed the Gaza ceasefire could yet be its undoing. Yair Wallach in New Statesman