Trump has paralysed the Democrats

The Democrat collective cry of “we’ve got him” – him being Donald Trump – last week, was followed by silence. The news that a whistleblower has come forward with some “urgent concern” about Donald Trump’s phone conversations with the Ukrainian president certainly energised Washington Democrats, until they realised they didn’t quite know what to do.

Is it now more likely that Donald Trump will be impeached by the Senate? Well, the percentage change is real and positive but that’s not to say that the matter is settled either way. The facts around Donald Trump’s Ukraine phone calls have yet to emerge, though Trump has now admitted that he mentioned Joe Biden to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. So much of this feels – for the want of a more legal term – inappropriate. It seems that aid was withheld (“extortion” is a way some are phrasing it) for reasons that are unclear.

In other words, that interference described in veiled, legally circumloquacious, and media unfriendly terms in Robert Mueller’s report: it is now out in the open with the President admitting that not only is he happy with foreign meddling in American elections but, in fact, he might well have pushed for it.

That still doesn’t mean, of course, that any of this is impeachable. It’s easy to be overwhelmed by the amount of new reporting that comes out with each passing day, but it bears repeating: if Republicans in the Senate continue to protect their President, nothing will change.

The New York Times reported last week that Trump’s lawyers appeared before a New York judge and argued that his tax returns should not be released because their client “could not be criminally investigated while in office”. There is no such protection for the President, but Trump clearly feels like he is immune from the law.

And he might well be right so long as the Department of Justice remains is in the hands of William Barr. The Republicans might well understand that there will come a reckoning when they’ll be asked to explain their support for an out-of-control executive. The job of restoring the Republican Party will be for younger proper conservatives down the line. For the moment, Republicans have power thanks to their Trump and they will hold onto it for as long as they can, all the time putting their people into key roles which will become their immediate legacy.

The Democrats, however, faces a more pressing challenge. For all the talking heads on cable news and the subpoenas issued by the House, the Democrats have done nothing that has impacted the President in any meaningful way. Again, after two and a half years, they still don’t have those damn tax returns.

In recent days, there have been countless reports about the frustrations of Democrats who believe they have been playing too gently with Trump. They certainly have a point. Last week, Trump’s former campaign manager turned media attack dog, Corey Lewandowski, appeared before the House Judiciary Committee and produced the most incalcitrant performance that the Hill has possibly ever seen. He sat ramrod straight in his chair, his hard bony head under his hard bony haircut producing a hard bony performance. He was slow to answer every question and often demanding that questions be repeated. Lewandowski was obviously playing to an audience of one in the White House but his message about Democratic impotence would have been more broadly received. There was talk (and there still is) that he would be held in contempt by the House but, predictably, nothing has happened. Lewandowski should have been immediately sanctioned but Democrats are wary of turning him into a martyr.

It’s not just Lewandowski who leaves the Democrats gazing into the middle distance. The Trump presidency might well be burning itself out, but Democrats look frightened at getting too close and being caught up in the conflagration. Perhaps that’s sensible. Polls suggest most Americans are tired of Trump. If Democrats keep their heads down, so the argument goes, they will win the day.

The problem with this argument is that while  the Democrats move slowly, around them a furious President is erecting all manner of traps. It’s why the Ukrainian business is important, even if talk of impeachment remains, for the moment, gestural.

As we saw in 2016, Trump knows how to sling dirt. As he might phrase it: nobody slings more dirt; nobody slings better dirt; nobody gets more dirt to stick.

Already, the Ukrainian business isn’t just a problem for Trump. It is now turning into a problem for Democrats and specifically the Biden campaign. Hunter Biden’s involvement with Burisma Holdings is problematic for his father. Even if his son’s actions are legal, and independent of his father’s political role around Ukraine, they feed Donald Trump’s “swamp” narrative.

Senator Linsey Graham (now more lapdog than attack dog) came out over the weekend and demanded that the Department of Justice launch a probe similar to the Mueller Investigation. “Joe Biden said everybody’s looked at this and found nothing. Who is everybody?” he said. “Nobody’s looked at the Ukraine and the Bidens. Nobody’s looked at the role the Ukraine played in the 2016 election. Do you think the media in America would really look at it and report on it if there was something bad for the Bidens or are they unduly interfered in the 2016 election?”

“Everybody” and “nobody” are so very Trumpian. Smears aren’t spread by knowing the details but possessing a lack of specifics and Biden is obviously being dragged into the all-demeaning, all-concealing mud because he poses the greatest threat to the President. But we expected this.

Trump’s tactics could yet result in Biden losing the Democratic nomination. The winner would undoubtedly be Elizabeth Warren, who, it is rumoured, is the person Trump most relishes campaigning against. Her stock is certainly rising among Democrats. Most voters in the blue corner want Elizabeth Warren to lead their ticket in 2020, even if the same voters believe that it’s Joe Biden who stands the best chance of beating Donald Trump.

That remains the challenge to Democrats. How do they fight an election campaign against a President who can use his office to amplify a crude but effective message? How Biden fights back could well make or break his campaign but, if it breaks him, Democrats should rightly wonder if any candidate has what it takes to succeed in this grossly debased form of politics.