Being Tory leader is like being emperor in the last days of Rome

Well, to quote Mrs May after she had lost her Commons majority two years ago, “nothing has changed”. We thought she was talking nonsense, but really she wasn’t. Nothing had changed materially. That’s still true today, even after the interesting EU elections. Indeed Jeremy Corbyn, with uncharacteristic acumen, remarked last week on the unchanged reality: he told us that the country is divided. He may even have said “deeply divided”. Well spotted, Jeremy!

So it is. The division was revealed in the 2016 Referendum when 52% of those who voted said “yes” to Brexit and 48% said “no”. The figures may since have shifted a point or two, but essentially nothing has changed. Half want out, half want in.

There was no new question in last month’s European election, except perhaps which of the parties of government would be given the harder kicking. Answer: the Conservatives, but only just.

Meanwhile the arithmetic at Westminster remains just what it was, and it is very hard to imagine any government motion on Brexit, whether proposing some revision of Mrs May’s Withdrawal Agreement (which has been approved by the EU itself), or a foot-stamping “No Deal”, securing a majority in the Commons.

However, if nothing has changed (except for Mrs May’s promise to go) we are at least promised a temporary distraction from the complexities of reality. This is taking the form of the Tories’ revival of that much-loved drama, “The Priest of Diana at Nemi”.

The Priest, according to the evocative first paragraph of J G Frazer’s “The Golden Bough”, stalked watchfully round the Goddess’s Temple, sword in hand. He was an escaped slave who had won his post by slaying the incumbent priest, and would hold it only till another runaway slave killed him. Admittedly, things are done a little differently now. The incumbent Priest, Mrs May, won’t actually be slain, for she has withdrawn gracefully, or promised to withdraw. So the field is clear for the runaway slaves, clear but a bit crowded, and whoever wins must immediately guard his or her back. The tenure of the office is rarely long-lived.

Being sane, you may wonder why anyone should put up for the job. To switch classical comparisons, being leader of the Tory party nowadays is a bit like being Emperor in the last days of Rome. The legions that are supposed to guard you may cut your throat at any moment.

No matter. More than a dozen candidates have announced their intention of standing. Others are still reported to be considering it. At this rate they’ll have to hire more starting-stalls.

Most of the usual suspects are there, though it’s a bit surprising to note the absence – to date – of Dr Fox, the man who promised us all these easily-secured trade deals. Perhaps he is cunningly biding his time or simply wandering the world in search of friends.

There’s another absence worthy of remark. Nobody did more to scupper Mrs May than the paladins of the ERG (European Research Group) and especially the Voice of Deepest Somerset. But there is no Mogg in the line-up, eager to shoulder responsibility for the future. Why not? Is Mogg chicken? He is backing Boris.

Of course, one can understand why so many are eager for the moment to go where Mogg, it seems, fears to venture. The battle for the priesthood is a happy diversion from further scrutiny of the results of the EU Parliamentary elections. Nobody, I’m sure, wants to dwell on them. Much better to play at being Churchill’s heir.

Still the puzzle remains. What’s the point of it? What does any of them suppose a new Tory leader can achieve?

Bold words are spoken. Bold promises made. There’s a better deal to be made – by me, me, me , of course. A bit of rough talking and a few home truths will cause these chaps in Brussels and Strasbourg to fall into line, and, if they don’t, then I shall proclaim “No Deal” and cross Jordan to the music of a band playing “Land of Hope and Glory, Mother of the Free…”

Well, perhaps perhaps. But, first there’s the question concerning the readiness of the EU states, the European Parliament and the EU Commission to enter into new negotiations when they are apparently satisfied with the deal that Mrs May brought to the Commons, not to mention being  bored stiff by British politicians; and then there is the probability that the House of Commons will refuse to approve a no deal departure.

And where would that leave our new PM? In a leaking boat with a majority in the Commons demanding a further postponement of our departure date.

So what then? A General Election? Show me the prospective leader who welcomes that prospect.

Any Tory PM who goes to the country without having delivered Brexit will be deserted by Leave voters shouting “traitor”. Any Tory PM who goes to the country having taken us out of the EU without a deal will be deserted by Remainers shouting “traitor”. Heads you lose, tails you lose.

It’s a dismal prospect, and yet they queue up to drink from a chalice they know to be poisoned. Puck got them right: “Lord, what fools these mortals be.”

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