Tories heading for Cleverly v Badenoch run off
It’s uncertain where centrist Tugendhat’s twenty voters will now go. Though it is highly unlikely that Jenrick will pick up any.
Before I get to the results of the latest round in the Tory leadership contest, a message from the team at Reaction. As you know, we are now on Substack.
That means you get the daily evening briefing and high quality commentary and analysis from our writers. And you can read Reaction on the app provided by Substack.
If in addition you want my weekly newsletter for Reaction subscribers on politics, geopolitics, economics and culture, upgrade to paid here.
Right, back to the Tory leadership race.
The latest round of voting by Tory MPs post-party conference has reduced the field to three candidates today.
James Cleverly topped the poll with 39 votes. Robert Jenrick received 31 votes and Kemi Badenoch scored 30.
Centrist Tom Tugendhat was eliminated from the race, with 20 votes.
Tomorrow, three will become two with a final round of voting by Tory MPs. Then out it goes to the Tory membership to vote and pick a winner by early November.
Having (deliberately) missed Tory party conference to go to Washington instead for a conference, I’ve watched the latest stages of the race from a distance.
Through the fog of jet-lag and transatlantic incomprehension, here’s what I think it means.
1) Jenrick has topped out after a poor party conference. His video on the ECHR with an ill-judged section on the UK’s special forces did his campaign serious harm.
2) Who knows with any certainty where centrist Tugendhat’s twenty voters will now go? “MPs are lying b******s,” a Westminster veteran said when I asked him after today’s votes. That is a little unfair, but it is not unprecedented for Tory MPs to pledge support to rival campaigns simultaneously. But, but… it is highly unlikely that Jenrick will pick up any TT MPs. The votes will – barring something bizarre happening – go to Cleverly and Badenoch. Meaning Jenrick is out.
3) That makes for a Cleverly against Badenoch contest. I’ll have more on all this later in the week for Reaction subscribers. It promises to be quite an exciting contest. It says something about how much Britain has changed for the better and the Tory party with it, that this will be a contest between two Britons who just happen to be black Britons, following a British Asian PM, and this is so little remarked upon.