Time for all politicians to talk honestly about immigration

The gap between the rhetoric and reality of immigration is widening so far that the words of the politicians seem barely relevant to what is happening in this country and around the world.

The Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, is sticking by David Cameron’s desire to limit the net number of people coming into this country to settle to “the tens of thousands”. Immigration has become another area where Sir Keir Starmer is lining the Labour Party up close to the Conservatives, albeit without setting a target in numbers. “British growth needs to get off its immigration dependency” he told the CBI annual conference this week, decisively jettisoning his 2020 commitment to maintain freedom of movement.  

Meanwhile, in the real world latest figures from the Office for National Statistics are that 1.1 million people migrated to the UK in the twelve months to this June, 704,000 of them from outside the EU. Sir Keir told his business audience “this is not about Brexit” but the headline net immigration figure is only kept to half a million (504,000) because almost half of those who have left the country in that time were EU citizens (275,000 out of a total exodus of 560,000). 

These are record figures and of them 381,459 were given the right to work mostly under the government’s skilled worker and health and care workers visa system.  The facts give the lie to Sir Keir’s declaration that “the days when low pay and cheap Labour are part of the British way of growth must end”. As the CBI told him, at best it will take years to get people already here to fill vacancies, if it can be done at all, while they need the workers to do the jobs right now. 

The large numbers are attributed to special factors, such as foreign students returning to their courses after the pandemic lockdowns, yet the net immigration total of half a million is bigger than the previous pre-Brexit, pre-Covid record in 2015, of 336,000.

 Predictably the government briefed newspapers that there will be a crackdown on students admitted to “non-elite” universities. Equally predictably the former University minister Lord (Joe) Johnson piped up that the universities need the money from foreigners, who play three times more than domestic students, and that no university should be teaching poor courses. 

Political parties justify their fantasy tough talking on immigration on the grounds that it is what the voters, especially those in the so-called “Red Wall”, want and expect to hear. Nigel Farage’s “Breaking Point” point poster is widely credited by politicians as a clincher in the EU referendum. “You are welcome to try that in my constituency”, a Shadow Cabinet member retorted sarcastically when I suggested that it might be time for a more honest debate. 

This week the Institute for Public Policy Research, a centre left think tank, produced some interesting research in a new report, A New Consensus – How Public Opinion Has Warmed to Immigration. Inflation and the economy are the public’s top concerns at 45%, according to IpsosMori. Immigration is down at 21% along with the NHS, just ahead of “lack of faith in the government” at 20%. It was an issue raised by 42% of Conservative voters but only 13% of Labour supporters. Baby boomers, aged 55 to 64, were the most concerned (40%), compared to 31% for the over 65, 34% for the under 55s, and a negligible 4% of voters under 25. The IPPR estimates that a more pro-immigration stance would mean a modest gain by Labour from swing voters. 

Other surveys show that the public is more bothered by the humanitarian chaos of the small boats crossing the channel, rather than the idea of people migrating to this country. These illegal migrants are caught in a Catch 22, one that was exposed by the Home Secretary this week. She told the select committee of MPs that only those legally entering this country should be considered for asylum, but was unable to explain what legal routes exist for them to come here.

In common with other G7 countries the British government has long paid lip service to the notion “genuine asylum seekers welcome, economic migrants bad”, while doing precisely the opposite, in spite of a relatively generous, if increasingly ponderous, level of acceptance of asylum seekers here. 

The hundreds of thousands getting visas are economic migrants, to the benefit of themselves and their hosts. Many send remittances home while their gainful occupations here boost the UK’s GDP.  

People have always migrated in search of a better life or even survival. At the end of last year the United Nations estimated that there are around 281 million international migrants, which includes around 30 million refugees. The movement of people is not going to slow down, thanks to the climate crisis, domestic conflicts and above all income inequality. The average income in the OECD’s high income bracket is more than 50 times the low income. Even if growth rates are higher in some parts of the developing world it will take more than a century to close that gap. 

Opportunities for education and growth are also easier to find in countries such as Britain. By no means everyone would go as far as Jeremy Corbyn who found himself in harmony with the CBI this week as he tweeted a counterblast to Starmer: “Without immigration, the trains wouldn’t run, businesses wouldn’t function and the NHS wouldn’t exist. We will not end cheap labour by dividing workers and belittling migrants’ contribution.” 

Still the UK’s demographic trend is that more than 10 million people will leave the workforce over the next twenty five years or so, without being replaced. Many of the retirees will need pensions, which are financed by those still in work and paying taxes. Without immigration, will there be enough of them? 

Germany faces a similar problem. Chancellor Merkel’s “wir schaffen das” decision to absorb more than a million Syrian migrants into the population was not purely motivated by humanitarianism. There are even those who argue that the resourceful young men who predominate amongst those crossing the Channel are just the sort of people we should want to recruit into our economy. Conservative MPs were amongst those urging Braverman to set up proper processing systems abroad so at least some of those now coming illegally can apply properly instead.

Britain’s record immigration total is also attributed to special circumstances, such as the need to take in those seeking refuge from the Ukraine war and the crackdown in Hong Kong. But it seems unlikely that there is going to any halt to global upheavals. Around the time of Brexit, the migrant flow was from the war in Syria, after that from Libya and Afghanistan. Then there is the steady stream of those escaping poverty or conflict in former colonies in sub-Saharan Africa. 

The West is not innocent of all that is going on in those countries now. The former British Empire recognises some sense of obligation to its former colonial subjects as lifeline journeys of some prominent members of the Conservative party illustrate. 

Beyond recognizing that net immigration into the UK is not going to stop, I don’t have the answers to this conundrum. Fear of the other or outsider is a human instinct and economic competition is a reality. 

But our politicians would serve the nation better if they found the courage to speak about the issues openly, instead of hollow posturing. The diverse British public might be mature enough to take it. Politicians talk tough against immigration, even while knowing that it is running at high levels.