The Southern Hemisphere monopoly may be broken, but the odds are slim
We all know that England are the only Northern Hemisphere team to have won the Rugby World Cup. France have come close to doing so, and were perhaps unlucky not to beat New Zealand in the final in 2011, though they were somewhat fortunate to have got so far. Otherwise the story is one of Southern Hemisphere supremacy: 1987 New Zealand, 1991 Australia, 1995 South Africa, 1999 Australia, 2007 South Africa, 2011 New Zealand, 2015 New Zealand. England and France have been beaten finalists. Ireland, Wales and Scotland have never got beyond the semi-final. Is there any good reason for thinking it will be different in Japan?
Ireland and Wales have been the most successful northern teams since 2015, and Wales won a Six Nations Grand Slam this year while Ireland have beaten the All Blacks. Nevertheless, triumph in Japan looks unlikely for either of them. Wales won the Six Nations playing a well-structured but very limited game. They scored only ten tries in the tournament, the same number as Italy who lost all their five matches. The comparison is misleading, several of Italy’s tries having been scored in the last ten minutes of matches they had already lost. All the same ten tries in five matches isn’t impressive these days. Welsh supporters might remark that World Cup finals have almost all been close and tight affairs, not feasts of adventurous running rugby, and indeed Wales may be the best equipped of the northern sides to win a low-scoring match in which the result is determined by the quality of defence. One might add “by the quality of goal-kicking” if it wasn’t for the fact that pretty well everyone now has an outstanding and reliable goal-kicker. There won’t be a better organised team in the tournament, but whether they have the quality to beat any of the southern hemisphere Big Three must be doubtful. They will need to have the good fortune to avoid injuries in the Pool stage because their reserve strength is not impressive.
England look to be better equipped than any of their northern friends and rivals to wrest the Cup from southern hands. They have, as usual, a very powerful pack, secure in the tight and at the line-out. It is more mobile than many English packs have been. In Maro Itoje and Billy Vunipola they have ball-carriers at least as good as any other team can field. Moreover they now have two young flankers, Sam Underhill and Tim Curry, who are faster and more effective at the breakdown than anyone they have fielded since 2003. They have fast try-scoring backs and, if George Ford is at 10, a fly-half who is a game-manager of the highest class, reminiscent of Rob Andrew. On the debit side, their probable full-back Elliot Daly is very uncertain under the high ball and given to mistiming tackles or simply being in the wrong place. Their scrum-halves Ben Youngs and Willie Heinz are fairly ordinary, Youngs perhaps past his best and Heinz, a veteran club player with very little international experience. It’s fair to say that neither would be going to Japan if he was Welsh, Irish, Scottish or French.
England at their best are capable of beating anyone. Unfortunately, that “anyone” includes themselves. There have been moments of mental frailty. They lost control when they were ahead against Wales in the Six Nations and were unable to adapt and re-group, and there was that extraordinary second-half collapse in the Calcutta Cup. They give away too many foolish penalties and their captain Owen Farrell, though a very fine player, is dangerously apt to suffer a rush of blood to the head.
France are in England’s pool as are Argentina. This means that all three have two hard matches if they are to reach the knock-out quarter-final stage. Argentina are always tough customers, now hardened by their experience in the southern hemisphere’s Rugby Championship. France have as ever lots of talent and seem to have a more settled side than usual. They have a pack that won’t give ground to anyone and behind it a brilliant young scrum half, Antoine Dupont and a wing Damien Penaud who is a natural try-scorer. In that most skilful of centres Wesley Fofana they have a player capable of opening up any defence. His career has so often been interrupted by injury that one can only hope that he can stay fit and display his talent in the autumn of his playing days. It’s some time now since England v France was the big match of the Five/Six Nations, christened “Le Crunch” by the newspaper L’Equipe, but their pool match in Yokohama on October 12 may really be “Le Crunch”, especially if either team has already lost to Argentina.
Ireland have clambered back to the top of the rather odd World rankings, but this hardly makes them favourites. Indeed they will have to play very well to reach even the semi-final because they will almost certainly meet either New Zealand or South Africa in the quarters. The impression is that they are not quite as good as they were a year ago; both England and Wales beat them in the Six Nations. Much depends on whether their Lions halves, Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray, can return to top form. Partly on account of injuries, they have been shadows of their former selves this year. Indeed, there is some reason to think that Ireland might do better with the reserve pairing of Joey Carberry and Luke McGrath. Their coach Joe Schmidt has incurred a good deal of criticism at home for selecting the only-just-qualified South African Jean Kleyn instead of Devin Toner who has not only played in every Six Nations match since Schmidt became Ireland’s coach, but is still unrivalled as the go-to man at the line-out. If Ireland should lose a key defensive 5-metre line-out and concede a try as a result, Toner’s omission will look like an awful blunder.
Nevertheless, Ireland have quality everywhere. No team is better at retaining possession and frustrating the opposition. A fit and in-form Sexton is still the best tactical kicker in the game, and in Keith Earls and Jacob Stockdale they have voracious try-scoring wings.
They play Scotland in their opening match, and Scots are unhappily aware that they have developed a habit of losing to Ireland even in games which they have had opportunities to win. Scotland are a bit like the little girl in the rhyme who “when she was good, she was very very good, and when she was bad, she was horrid.” When things click they can score tries, often brilliant ones, against anybody, but sadly too often concede soft tries against anyone.
Much depends on their fly-half Finn Russell being fit and in the mood. That Russell is touched with genius is recognised in France where he plays for Racing92, if not always in England, or indeed by some Scottish supporters. Scotland are a bit underpowered up front, but they have a predatory back-row and in the flanker Hamish Watson, and Blade Thomson, a New Zealander with, happily, a Scottish grandfather, they have two hard-to-stop ball-carriers, even if neither is quite in the Billy Vunipola class. Scotland have more reason to be hopeful than in any World Cup since 1991 when they lost 6-9 to Will Carling’s England in the semi-final, but, unless they beat Ireland in their first match, their hope of reaching the quarter-final may depend on beating the hosts Japan in the last Pool game – a possible banana-skin, that one.
Sadly for Ireland and Scotland their World Cup is likely to end at the quarter-final stage (assuming they get there) for one will then play New Zealand, the other South Africa. It’s one of the unsatisfactory features of the World Cup that pool placings are decided so early. On recent form South Africa are one of the two or three best teams in the Cup, but, because they were on a poor run then, they find themselves in number two position in the same pool as the All Blacks.
It would be nice to think that the Southern Hemisphere monopoly may be broken, but the odds are against it. England have the best chance of doing so. Whether they are strong enough mentally may be questionable. The same doubtless is true of France, though they have a record of bringing off World Cup surprises. One thing is sure: there’s no doubt concerning the mental strength of New Zealand and South Africa. They are deservedly the two favourites.