The President won’t quit but the GOP must look beyond Trump

Could Donald Trump quit before the November election? Speculation from both conservative and liberal news networks over the past week has suggested that he might, but is there more to this than the wishful thinking of the GOP finally catching up with the pragmatic thinking of six months ago?

It was back around the turn of the year when Donald Trump’s presidential ticket should have been ripped up by Senate Republicans. Some whispered it. The rest denied it. His impeachment gave them a chance to stand up for the rule of law, commit themselves to the Constitution they claim to hold higher than party loyalty, as well as pave the way for a new candidate who might stand a chance of winning against a relatively weak Democratic opponent.

Instead, they blew their chance. The impeachment was an impeachment in name only; a shameful capitulation to a man who never had the interests of the conservative movement at heart.

It leaves them heading into the summer with Trump feeling heat in the polls, trailing in six battleground states to a man who has barely moved out of his cold basement. For all the mockery of Joe Biden hiding away, life underground appears to be working wonders for the Democrat, while the situation looks increasingly dire for Republicans. It more than explains the muttering we’re hearing about the possibility of Trump not running in November.

It’s certainly a compelling thought and wouldn’t be without precedent. The last president who didn’t seek re-election was LBJ, who announced that he wouldn’t stand again in 1968. It proved a popular move. His poll numbers rose.

Trump is a different beast but his need for popularity more acute. It’s often been written that Trump was never interested in becoming president back in 2016. His entire campaign was supposedly a promotional gimmick, a chance to boost his popularity ahead of forming a TV channel to rival Fox News. Putting in the long hours at the Resolute Desk was never on the cards.

Retirement now would certainly explain his total lack of policies for a second term. Asked on Fox News last week, Trump blustered around describing his plans for 2021 and beyond. He talked about knowing “very many people in Washington” and how “the word ‘experience’ is a very important word” but the look on Sean Hannity’s face said it all. It was the look of a man who’d tied his reputation to a president shackled to a block of concrete.

At times it appears that Trump doesn’t care about victory. The “law and order president” gambled on public unrest which hasn’t materialised to the extent required to justify his hard line. Instead of seeking a popular mandate, his words and actions now look like those of a man relying on the fealty of a small minority who are persuaded by the Trump brand.

Lastly, it would be consistent with a man who doesn’t seem capable of accepting or even contemplating defeat. If he should decide that America doesn’t “deserve” a second Trump term, he could flounce off the stage, claiming to be the president treated most unfairly by the press. He would quit with an unbeaten record, at the same time claiming victim status alongside the portion of the electorate who likewise feel the system to be unfairly rigged against them. Tie that in with rumours of ill health (difficulties with ramps and drinking with one hand) and an escape route begins to sound more plausible.

So, yes, Trump quitting early sounds possible… except when it doesn’t. And that’s the problem. These rumours fly in the face of so much that we already know about this president.

First, it would be the ultimate expression of weakness. It just doesn’t fit with the psychology of the man who would rather deny reality than accept his frailty. It has always seemed much more likely that Trump would escalate his attack on the legitimacy of the election, claim voter fraud, and then take the result to the courts. Capitulation would play poorly with loyalists. It would ruin his brand.

Then we still have the matter of legal liability that’s certain to follow Trump out of office. He might fight on simply because victory, however unlikely, offers the opportunity to push back all the court cases awaiting him the moment he’s no longer covered by executive privilege. Admittedly, between now and November he could pardon himself, or hand over to Pence for long enough to issue a pardon, but that is not without jeopardy. The pardon power has never been tested in court. As recent surprise judgements handed down by the Supreme Court will remind him, it’s not certain he would win.

Lastly, there’s the matter of the limelight. Trumpism has always been less of an ideology than it is a man exploiting the power of the camera. It’s hard to see Trump willingly giving up his place on the bully pulpit until the very last moment.

We should realise by now that the only certainty about 2020 is that there are no certainties. What these rumours do speak to, however, is the situation that was always likely from the moment Trump launched his “takeover” of the Republican Party. For years, we’ve heard pundits claim that the GOP has become “the party of Trump” and that it would be forever changed in his image. Yet the pragmatics of politics means that you have loyal followers for only so long as you are viable.

Trump is looking weaker by the month. Sensible Republicans have already been mulling life beyond Trump and now the not-so-sensible Republicans will be mulling it too. Those are difficult calculations. For many of them, Trump losing would be a better option than Trump handing over the baton this far back in the race. Trumpism needs defeating in the polls. That would make life so much easier for the GOP moving forward. Anything else prolongs their agony.