The outlines of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal are emerging
While most of the American pressure to make concessions is on Kyiv, the Russians don’t get it all their own way.
Donald Trump said the US was willing to “take a pass” on Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations unless a deal is reached soon. The only pass so far is Secretary of State Marco Rubio skipping Wednesday’s meeting in London. Instead, what we’ve seen are the outlines of a deal emerging. It may come to nothing, but any progress made is because the White House threatened to walk away.
The President’s statement left open whether he meant the Americans would pull out of talks and let the war take its course, end negotiations along with all support for Ukraine, or end negotiations and increase support for Ukraine. No-one could be sure and so Zelensky and Putin had to focus – hard.
Putin knows that if the Americans go all in on the side of Ukraine, he might lose the war and would definitely scupper the diplomatic rapprochement with Washington which the administration has floated. Zelensky knows that without any American help Putin might still win a war of attrition, and that he can’t really count on the Europeans.
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