The elephant in the room during Starmer’s trip to Germany
There was no mention from Starmer or Scholz today of Berlin’s plans to cut aid for Ukraine in half.
Keir Starmer vowed to “turn a corner on Brexit” and embrace a “once-in-a-generation opportunity to reset our relationship with Europe”, speaking from Berlin today during his first bilateral visit since taking office.
After meeting with, Olaf Scholz, his German counterpart and fellow centre-left leader, Starmer confirmed that the two have launched a new bilateral treaty, to boost trade and depeen defence co-operation. Tonight, the PM continues his tour of the continent, after being greeted by President Macron in France.
The narrative of a “reset” in relations with Europe under Labour is one Starmer is keen to push. We heard him usher the same phrase many a time last month too when he hosted European leaders at Blenheim Palace.
But is there any substance behind it?
Starmer has firmly ruled out rejoining the bloc. And, despite his talk of repairing “broken relationships” with the EU, he reiterated today that the fundamental architecture of Britain’s post-Brexit settlement – outside the single market, outside the customs union – will not change under his leadership.
As for the significance – or lack thereof – of this new bilateral treaty with Berlin, this will take time to assess. The PM’s negotiating team are expected to spend the next six months working out the terms of agreement.
According to officials, the Anglo-German defence partnership is likely to be modelled on a 2010 deal with France signed by David Cameron, which set out a 50-year plan for defence cooperation.
Strong defence co-operation with Berlin is paramount. After all, Britain and Germany are western Europe’s biggest defence spenders while Germany is Ukraine’s second largest military donor, after the US. Since 2022, Germany has allocated over €34 billion in military, humanitarian and financial aid to Ukraine.
Which brings us to the elephant in the room during Starmer’s trip to Berlin.
Earlier this summer, as Scholz struggled to fill a black hole in Berlin’s finances, a draft German budget for next year revealed plans to cut German funding for Ukraine in half, from the current €8 billion in 2024 to €4 billion in 2025. More recently, a draft budget, seen by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper indicated that Ukraine was only set to receive around €3 billion from Germany in 2026, with the figure falling to €500 million in 2027.
German Finance minister, Christian Lindner – whose liberal Free Democrats party form part of Scholz’s ‘‘traffic-light” coalition – has insisted that, despite Berlin’s planned budget cuts, Ukraine’s financing is “secure for the foreseeable future” due to a G7 scheme to raise $50bn for Ukraine from interest on frozen Russian assets.
But others have labelled it naive, if not disingenuous, to suggest that German cuts could be compensated by the interest raised on frozen Russian assets. After all, there is no proper G7 agreement in place right now for seizing the $300 billion in frozen assets themselves. “The financial instruments simply don’t exist yet,” insists Mattia Nelles, chief executive of the German-Ukraine Bureau.
And, with the prospect of a second Trump presidency looming, the timing of a potential scaleback in funding from Kyiv’s second largest supporter too is far from ideal.
There was no mention from Starmer or Scholz today of Germany’s planned budget cuts.
At a post-talk press conference, Scholz and Starmer displayed a united front. Starmer reiterated that the UK had a “commitment to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes,” and insisted that his unwavering support for Kyiv was “consistent with the approach of other key allies, including Germany.”
Behind closed doors, discussions on Ukraine were almost certainly a little tenser.