Ten takeaways from the local elections
My ten takeaways from the local elections will not all be proved right but this is the direction in which I think the signs are pointing. Some of my takeaways are conventional wisdom, others are contentious.
1. Plan for an autumn general election.
Rishi Sunak’s “second half of the year…working assumption” always allowed for a July vote ahead of the summer break if the results were either good enough to encourage a dash to the polls or bad enough to force a serious leadership challenge. Neither has happened. The party conference season is likely to go ahead as usual. A firm steer as to the date is likely to emerge from #CPC24 in Birmingham at the end of September. Sunak will likely want to celebrate his second anniversary in Number Ten on 24 October. So most likely dates are 14 or 21 November after the US Elections on Guy Fawkes Day. Some diehards see the possibility for “doing a Boris” opting for 12 December, hoping for a similar pre-Christmas differential turnout. Waiting until the last possible date – Thursday 23 January 2025 – would amount to a final broken Sunak Pledge.
2. Sunak will lead the Conservatives into the general election.
To outsiders, adopting a sixth prime minister in ten years, and a fourth without endorsement of the electorate, always looked absurd. Tory right-wingers did not see it that way. They have been contemplating a desperate bid to put in one of their own – or even Penny Mordaunt. But this weekend Suella Braverman, Sir John Hayes and Dame Andrea Jenkyns all backed off, demanding cabinet and policy changes instead. On past form, the Prime Minister is as likely to trim towards them as to “stick to the plan”. It would probably suit them if Sunak does not listen – their stated intention now is that he should “own” the defeat that they expect.
3. Win or Lose, Sunak will be gone soon.
Short of smashing it with the unlikely “greatest comeback in political history” he promised party workers, Sunak has only months left as Tory leader. It is his misfortune that none of his MPs seem to like him much; the “bad at politics” line is corrosive. Animosity and ambition is at such levels inside the party that Sunak will be pushed out even if there is a hung parliament. It is difficult to say who will prevail in the battle to be the next Tory leader. It will depend on what constitutes the parliamentary party after the election and their balance of power with the party membership at large.
4. A hung parliament is unlikely but still a possibility.
Professors Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings were right in their analysis – other analyses are also available.While the professors know better than most that people don’t necessarily vote the same way at general elections as they do at local elections, 3.7 million votes cast in 1,400 wards within months of a general election is nonetheless a useful database to produce an indicator and not a prediction. The Conservatives’ National Equivalent vote share this year is 27 per cent, down two on last year’s local elections and 18 on the 2019 general election. Labour is on 34 per cent, up one on 2019 and down one on last year. Labour will require a record-breaking swing bigger than the changes in the local elections to completely reverse the massive Conservative lead Boris Johnson built in 2019. Labour has a lead but lacks momentum in these local elections just as it does in opinion polls. Thrasher’s observation that “the next election is not a foregone conclusion” is a modest statement of the obvious.
5. Partisans are getting their reactions wrong.
The Prime Minister is warning that Labour is on course to be the largest party in a hung parliament, presiding over a “coalition of chaos”. This attack line is brave, considering the present state of the Conservative party and the country, and it could backfire: by invoking it, Sunak may well encourage waverers in the electorate to finish the job by switching to Labour. Conversely, those Labour sympathisers trashing Thrasher and insisting that Labour is on course to do much better are undermining the “no complacency” message which Starmer’s team considers vital to energise their potential voters.
6. Labour and the Liberal Democrats need a private pact.
The two parties would be well advised not to fight each other too hard. When Labour does well, the LibDems do well. Headlines such as “Labour sets sights on ‘blue wall’” are unlikely to breed amity since this colour of brick has long been a LibDem target. But campaign manager Pat McFadden is right that only Labour can beat the Conservatives in some, mostly less affluent parts of the South. Mid Beds should have shown the LibDems that they should not get too greedy and should instead concentrate their efforts in places where they have done well before.
7. The Greens, Reform and Gaza activists will not change who “wins” the General Election.
Fourth party and independent “others” tend to take more votes in local than general elections: they accounted for 6.6 per cent of the vote in the UK in 2019 general election compared to at least 15 per cent in this year’s locals. For the Greens, there is a modest upwards trend since these seats were fought in the 2021 locals from 8.1 per cent to 9.7 per cent. At 2.7 per cent, Reform UK is dramatically down on its UKIP predecessor, which took 10.8 per cent in the 2016 locals and 6.2 per cent in the 2019 locals. It is too soon to say how Labour will be hit by disaffection over Gaza. As the West Midlands Mayoral contest demonstrated, there are not many areas where it could be decisive. Labour held Rochdale council where George Galloway had triumphed when there was no official Labour candidate. The Greens look well placed to win Bristol Central at the general election, but may also lose their own current seat, Brighton Pavilion, which is being vacated by Caroline Lucas.
8. Nigel Farage won’t stand.
Why should he? He wouldn’t win. Reform UK is a Tory story. Its erratic and patchy success has spooked Tory incumbents, most of whom are doomed anyway if the opinion polls are broadly right. It looks as if Ofcom is going to allow Farage to carry on with his GBNews show. He’ll have more influence and better pay there. The nominal Reform UK leader, Richard Tice, points out that Boris Johnson has major policy differences with Reform in spite of his admiration for Farage. Ultimately Johnson, Tice, Farage and GBNews seem most interested in influencing the future of the Conservative party.
9. Don’t count on Scotland.
Despite polls predicting a huge Labour gain in Scotland at the general election, it remains possible that the appointment of John Swinney as first minister, and less “progressive” policies, could steady the SNP, given the continuing 40 per cent plus support for independence.
10. Regional and City mayors matter but personal standing cannot buck the political trend.
This model of devolution should be expanded across the whole of England but it probably won’t be because of the challenge regional mayors pose to power at the centre, whoever is in charge. Susan Hall and Andy Street are certain to be offered Tory peerages, but will they accept them?
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