Sunak wins on Rwanda vote – for now

The government has won a narrow victory in the vote on its Rwanda bill this evening. The Conservative party’s flagship legislation made it through its second reading stage in the House of Commons by 313 votes to 269, a majority of 44. However, many MPs on the right of the party abstained in the hopes of amending the bill in the new year.

It was a dramatic day in Westminster. Last night the rumour mill had been in overdrive with speculation about the potential Tory rebellion that would vote against the government. As a result, some of these potential rebels from the New Conservatives caucus, including Miriam Cates and Danny Kruger, were invited to breakfast at No. 10. In a joint op-ed in the Telegraph, Cates and Kruger outlined their frustration with the amended bill: “At its core the bill fails to establish the sovereignty of the United Kingdom parliament over immigration policy”.

Sir Keir Starmer, speaking in Milton Keynes rather than a more distant red-wall constituency for fear of being stranded by the crumbling rail system, took a pop at the Tory “psychodrama”. 

He said: “[We are] all being dragged down to their level. While they’re all swanning around self-importantly with their factions and their ‘star chambers,’ fighting like rats in a sack, there’s a country out here that isn’t being governed. A country that needs leadership.”

The Rwanda asylum plan has been on the government’s agenda for some time. Legal challenges stopped the first flight taking off in June of 2022 and it has been in the courts since. In 2022, the government gave Rwanda £140m in the initial payment for the plan. Last week, it was confirmed that a further £100m was paid to Rwanda in 2023, with another £50m due next year.

Robert Jenrick, the former immigration minister who recently resigned over the bill, made a speech in the Commons arguing it could be “so much better”. Danny Kruger voiced concern that the bill does not go far enough to prevent the system from getting “gummed up” with legal claims meaning that not enough illegal migrants could be detained and deported efficiently. 

Sir Geoffrey Cox, MP for Torridge and West Devon, came out batting for the government arguing that parliamentary sovereignty allows the House of Commons to override the Supreme Court’s decision to name Rwanda an unsafe country.

With only 29 Tory MPs needed to vote against the bill – or 57 to abstain – to kill it off, the agitation of No. 10 was apparent all day. Graham Stuart, climate minister, was unexpectedly flown back from COP 28 in Dubai for the vote, indicating how important success for the government was and how close they expected the vote to be. Indeed, it was speculated that should eight DUP MPs vote against the bill, then it would only take 21 disgruntled Tory rebels to kibosh the whole thing. 

And close it was – a majority of 44 with frustrated abstentions that could have easily voted against. Rishi Sunak has avoided a nightmare before Christmas, but he no doubt has the January blues in store.

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