Starmer marks anniversary week with biggest U-turn so far
As Keir Starmer prepares to mark the anniversary of his first year in power this Friday, he has enacted the biggest U-turn of his premiership so far today, making it highly unlikely that the central pillar of the government’s major welfare reform - the overhaul of PIP disability benefits - will happen at all.
This afternoon, the government made a dramatic last-minute concession to its plans to impose the biggest benefits cut in a decade, as it prepared to fend off what it feared would be the largest rebellion of Starmer’s premiership so far.
It worked. The government’s welfare bill passed its second reading tonight by 335 votes to 260 in the Commons this evening. But, make no mistake, the bill’s survival will bring Starmer little respite.
Hours before the vote, disabilities minister Sir Stephen Timms confirmed to MPs that the disability benefits cuts contained in this bill - eligibility criteria reforms to make it harder for individuals to claim personal independence payments - will not be made until he has conducted a review into the system. The Timms review, which is being conducted with disability groups, will report back in Autumn 2026. This last-minute concession casts doubt on whether the planned changes, now subject to this review, will even go ahead at a later date.
The announcement from Timms is on top of the £2.5 billion U-turn confirmed by Starmer last week. On Thursday, in a major concession, the government watered down its welfare legislation so that the stricter eligibility criteria for PIP, the main disability benefit, would only apply to those claiming after November 2026, rather than existing claimants.
Both developments will be welcomed by the 126 Labour MPs who backed an amendment to the government’s welfare bill that would have sunk the legislation outright. (See last week’s briefing for more on the debate around welfare reform.)
Now though, Starmer will have to contend with the fiscal implications of his dramatic climbdown.
The government initially estimated that its welfare reforms would save around £5bn by 2030. Thursday’s concessions - estimated to cost £2.5bn over the next five years - cut that in roughly half. Tonight, it looks as though Reeves may well be tasked with finding a full £5 billion in the Autumn budget, on top of the £1.5 billion from the U-turn on winter fuel payments.
It’s not surprising that the government was pulling out the stops to prevent tonight’s bill from getting voted down. After all, the last time a government lost a second reading was in 1986.
But the scale of this U-turn has severely undermined Starmer’s authority, and on a symbolic week for the PM too.
This morning, Adam Boulton wrote in Reaction: “Previous prime ministers have bowed to pressure and executed U-turns. I cannot recall one, until now, who put their hands up repeatedly to leading the nation in completely the wrong direction.”
Starmer’s lack of political direction, he added, “has left the impression that he wears his convictions so lightly that he does not know where he wants to go.”
Tonight, these words ring even more true.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
ON REACTION TODAY
Gerald Warner
The way to end two-tier justice is not to jail Bob Vylan, but to free Lucy Connolly
Adam Boulton
A year on, Keir Starmer wears his convictions more lightly than ever
ALSO KNOW
Trump’s big, beautiful bill clears key hurdle - After hours of stalemate, Republicans in the US Senate have narrowly passed Donald Trump's mega-bill on tax and spending. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed with Vice-President JD Vance casting a tie-breaking vote after more than 24 hours of debate. It now heads back to the House, or lower chamber, where it still faces more opposition.
Letby’s ex-bosses arrested on suspicion of manslaughter - Three former senior staff at the hospital where Lucy Letby murdered seven babies have been arrested on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter. Cheshire police confirmed the three individuals, who were part of the leadership team at the Countess of Chester Hospital Foundation Trust in 2015 and 2016, were arrested on 30 June.
Germany to send naval ships to the Arctic - “We are seeing an increasing activity of Russian submarines operating in that area,” said Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius as he confirmed that Berlin will send ships to the Arctic to counter a Russian military build-up there.
Kim pays tribute to fallen North Korean soldiers - Kim Jong-un has held the first public ceremony for North Korean troops who died fighting in Russia’s war with Ukraine. The event at East Pyongyang Grand Theatre combined performances by North Korean and visiting Russian artists with images celebrating a mutual defence pact agreed by Kim and Russian president Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang in June last year.
Thai leader suspended - Thailand's Constitutional Court has suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office. Shinawatra has come under mounting pressure to resign following her leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen in which she called him “uncle” and criticised a Thai military commander, sparking public fury and a petition for her dismissal.
FIVE THINGS
Sergey Radchenko explains how Putin got the Middle East wrong, in Engelsberg Ideas.
William Hague asks what is Keir Stammer’s big idea? In The Times.
James Meadway asks: is Nigel Farage right about the Bank of England? In The New Statesman.
Nigel Jones on why we still lust after gold, in The Spectator.
Why capitalism needs champions. Matthew Hennessey in the Wall Street Journal.