Labour is out of touch
While Helsby is a Tory outcrop, Runcorn is pure Labour grit. It's one of those places that the Labour party should never lose.

Losing the Runcorn & Helsby by-election might well be the best thing to happen to Labour this year: one of those rare gifts from the gods that feel like a curse but become meaningful in time. The story arc might already hint at the Greek: beginning in darkness and emerging in light.
Not that Keir Starmer strikes anybody as the Odysseus kind of hero. More of a stoic who would rather count the lumps in his cold, grey porridge. He has shown the fortitude of Achilles in ignoring his backbenchers, pundits, or, indeed, political writers who have been muttering… in my case, quite loudly… that he’s making some epic mistakes. Also like Achilles, he has a slightly gammy ankle and looks vulnerable on that leg. The vulnerability is that Keir Starmer just doesn’t understand the people who put him into power.