Starmer and Labour don’t know how to cope with Boris

Apart from its major economic implications, last week’s Budget had two curious features. The first was the death of Budget purdah. Until the late nineties, chancellors of all parties made strenuous efforts to keep Budgets secret. For the final few weeks before delivery day, senior Treasury officials virtually cancelled their social lives. Ministers – who would ever suspect a minister of leaking? – were more relaxed, but even so, they often socialised in the company of a PPS or a private secretary, who could witness the absence of indiscretion and also, if necessary, gently steer the conversation away from risky topics.

Purdah began to break down under Gordon Brown, but this year it disappeared. No wonder the Speaker complained that announcements which ought to have been made in Parliament were all over the media. There was a suspicion of trickery. Surely Rishi Sunak would have some dramatic proclamation to recapture the element of surprise? Perhaps he was not actually going to increase corporation tax after all. These speculations turned out to be unfounded. The pre-Budget briefings were both comprehensive and accurate.

That brings us to the second surprise. Leading the Opposition can often seem a thankless task, beset by frustrations: never more so than when having to give an instant reply to the Budget. The Chancellor has had months to prepare, with the assistance of extremely able civil servants. The Leader of the Opposition has to improvise with conviction. Back in the day, Michael Foot would be searching through yellowing pink cuttings which he had extracted from the Financial Times. Denis Healey once commented that dear old Footie should not trouble himself with the FT and should stick to rereading Swift. But this year, Keir Starmer did not have to rely on hasty notes passed across from his economic spokesmen. He knew what would be in the Budget. All he needed was a strategy.

That defeated him. There are three principal reasons for this. The first of them is Boris. Labour does not know how to cope with him. Keir Starmer is a high-minded fellow, with an intellectually serious approach to politics which is widespread among those living in smartish parts of North London. Admittedly, Boris Johnson used to live in a smart bit of Islington, but none of the rest rubbed off on him. If Sir Keir were candid, he would declare that this is so unfair. Why is it that people have not yet seen through this blond mountebank?

Look at the record on Covid. The PPE programme was a fiasco. We should have locked down earlier. Government policy was often contradictory. By international comparisons, the UK’s record on death rates is one of the worst. Yet the voters do not seem to care. They appear to focus on two points only: our triumph on vaccinations and the spiteful stupidity of the Europeans. Can a woman be a mountebank? In this era of sexual equality, the answer must surely be ‘yes’. We are no longer allowed to say that Ursula von der Leyden is just a pretty face. We can point out that in the blond mountebank stakes, she far exceeds Boris Johnson.

But Labour’s Boris problem over Covid raises a more fundamental question. A few years ago, most thoughtful Labour supporters would have been confident that “their people” would never be persuaded to support Boris. Labour’s Hampstead intelligentsia were still confident that psephology and morality were mutually supportive. Their party could rely on the old-fashioned working class, because Labour marched in step with those whose working lives were centred on hard manual labour. They gave the Party its moral depth. How could an Old Etonian popinjay, a creature of entitlement and privilege, possibly counter that?

Well, he did. There are a number of explanations. First, Boris is a card. Keir Starmer is not. Second, although the social distinction between a Director of Public Prosecutions and a scholar of Eton will be apparent in North London, that may not be true in South Yorkshire. Issues obviously matter, especially Europe and immigration. But for years, Tory canvassers in working-class areas had experienced the same frustration. They would run through a list of policies, designed to elicit a socially-conservative response. On every point, there would be agreement. The canvasser dared to hope. Then the hopes were dashed. “No, sorry, we’re Labour here.” At the last Election, there was a lot less of that – because of Jeremy Corbyn. Many traditional Labour supporters simply did not accept that they and Mr Corbyn belonged in the same party.

Thus far, they do not seem enamoured of Sir Keir’s Party either. He has discovered that negatives are not enough. We know that he is not Jeremy Corbyn, but who is he? Labour has a further difficulty. The more virulent form of the Corbyn plague may be over, but the party is still threatened by debilitation from long Corbyn-ism, spread by the culture warriors. They are not going to win back the working-class defectors. There is still a divide between the social democratic wing of the Labour party and the socialist one. This is now exacerbated by the split between the woke-ites and those who would like to put them to sleep.

So where does Sir Keir stand on all this? Answer: we do not know. He does seem to lack political self-confidence, which may explain the absence of a Budget strategy. One also suspects that he is much more left-wing than he would find it wise to admit. From the days before he knew that he needed spin-doctors, those dismissive comments on the monarchy sounded authentic. His focus groups have told him to sound more patriotic and British. But he is not much of an actor. His undoubted intellectual seriousness might well lead well to the left of electability.

Not that he is seeming that electable at the moment. Mid-terms are usually tough for government, even without the worst social and economic crisis in peacetime history. Yet Labour is still behind in the opinion polls. Keir Starmer is beginning to look like an interim leader.

That said, it would be premature for Labour to give up hope on Boris. Look at the NHS pay fiasco. One per cent has registered in public consciousness, but because of the complexity of health pay scales, large numbers of nurses will receive a higher increase. Why did no-one in the government foresee the problem, take evasive action and avoid being skewered on the one per cent figure? Have they forgotten how to be political? Boris is a card. Can cards turn into souffles, and then collapse? With Boris, you never know. Perhaps Labour can take some comfort. Keir Starmer is not a card. Neither is he a souffle.