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Spiralling energy, welfarism gone wild, voter delusions and bouncy Burnham in a bind

The new Prime Minister has made a confident start but rising energy costs and a difficult international backdrop will make for a testing winter.

Iain Martin's avatar
Iain Martin
Oct 12, 2026
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Christopher Furlong vi PA Images 3FPXMYF

Apologies for the long gap between this and the previous edition of this newsletter. It has been flat out on London Defence Conference matters, with our LDC Washington Forum taking place late last month. There should be more time for writing now, and given the state of the world there is certainly plenty to write about.

On several levels it could not be going better for Britain’s bouncy new Prime Minister. In the summer, Labour replaced a leader who could not think, act or speak politically with a natural communicator radiating a message of hope amid the gloom. Understandably, after the misery of the robotic Starmer experience, former Labour voters have noticed the improvement and as a result the party’s opinion polling rating has been moving up since July. In the latest YouGov poll for The Times, Labour on 27% has a five point lead over Nigel Farage’s Reform, who are two points ahead of the Tories on 20 points.

Daily it gets even better for Burnham. At just the right moment for Labour, the crazy Green party to Labour’s left is disintegrating because it has been infiltrated by hardline pro-Palestine activists. Labour duly saw off the Greens in last week’s Holborn and St Pancras by-election. More broadly, Labour is recovering enough of that Green vote to help to rebuild.

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