The SNP is in a terrible mess‎. Call an early election, Prime Minister

Just imagine Theresa May’s face, and her shoulders heaving up and down, when she was told the news that the new editor of the London Evening Standard is…. George Osborne.

The former Chancellor has gone straight from copy boy (a flunky who in the olden days ran around a newspaper office fetching copy) to the post of editor, without pausing to do any of that boring stuff, like being a reporter.

So momentous is the news of Osborne’s appointment that ‎this week, for one week only, there are two weekly newsletters from me. There is this one, on the SNP and on an early election and all that jazz.

And then I have been handed a leaked copy of Osborne’s first newslist and details of his exciting plans for The Standard. I will publish it later and send to Reaction subscribers.

Until then, back to the small matter of the constitution and the survival of the United Kingdom. When Nicola Sturgeon announced on Monday that she would seek on behalf of the Scottish National Party a second referendum on ‎independence it had an almost electrifying effect. What an operator she is. On the supposed eve of the triggering of Article 50, the process by which the UK will begin leaving the European Union, she had cut through the Westminster waffle on Brexit and in delivering a clear and provocative line stolen the headlines. She was aided by some bungling in Number 10. Theresa May’s team had not – not – planned to move on Article 50 on Tuesday, but they had, to the frustration of cabinet ministers, let the impression be created that they would, and let the story run, so that it looked as though Sturgeon had scared them off. This is spindoctoring and chief of staff basics. They must do better.

‎But what looked clever from the SNP on Monday, looks by the end of the week a good deal less smart. Once the fancy fireworks had fizzled out, it became apparent that the SNP plan was stuck on the launchpad suffering a serious malfunction.

Sturgeon’s position is that the Scottish parliament will vote next week on demanding talks to fix on a referendum. She wants Scotland to vote in a referendum in the autumn of 2018 or spring 2019.

This is preposterous. I’ll say that again: it is so obviously daft and such a clear non-starter that only a bunch of political obsessives such as the Nat high command, poring over their polling and baffled that Brexit has not yet powered them to independence, could think it a runner.

Happily‎, most voters are not obsessives and it is self-evident that trying to hold such a referendum in Scotland right in the middle of the culmination of the Brexit process or just as the UK is leaving the EU (neither process will be stress-free, to put it mildly) is silly. It is attention-seeking mischief-making at best and downright vandalism at worst. Reasonable people will see the ploy as unreasonable, and for all the hype about them being in a permanent state of fury (that’s the SNP’s job, and the SNP is not Scotland) most Scottish voters are reasonable.

Only a minority of Scottish voters want an early referendum. In contrast, the devotees would have a referendum every day of the week until they got the right result from their perspective. They are even talking already about the scope for a third referendum, otherwise known as the neverendum. Good grief, are these people ever going to get round to improving schools and the Scottish economy?‎ No, it seems not.

Very sensibly and calmly, May made the position clear later in the week. There will not be a referendum this side of Brexit. The UK has enough on its plate and Scottish voters have a right to see what the deal, or not, is like and decide then if they want a referendum and separation from the UK, where 64% of Scottish exports go. There may be a referendum, but not yet.

This leaves the SNP meeting at its conference in Aberdeen this weekend,‎ having one of those rallies that seems to have addled the brains of the faithful, in which there will be much jumping up and down and shouting that the “Torees” are running scared, always one of the most desperate and unconvincing of attack lines.

Sturgeon’s ploy has left reasonable types in the SNP looking unconvincing. On Friday, that nice man John Swinney, the SNP’s education minister who has the job of trying to fix more than a decade of failed policy in Scotland’s struggling schools system, was given the task of defending the referendum shambles on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. It did not go well.‎ Even so, Swinney was not as bad as Joanna Cherry QC. The SNP MP’s non-answer the night before on BBC Question Time when she was asked what currency Scotland would use after independence does deserve to go viral.

The reaction of the programme’s audience was revealing too. For several decades the SNP has done well on these UK programmes, usually when Alex Salmond is on laughing at his own jokes (usually before he delivers them) by generally scorning Labour and the Conservatives. The SNP has been allowed to play the role of smug observer and perpetually pious commentator. Not any more. The audience had worked out the truth. The SNP is at it.

Now, here comes the SNP trying to make Brexit more difficult, making daft demands and unable to answer basic questions‎ about the economy, currency and membership of the EU.

There we come to one of the oddest aspects of ‎the last week. The SNP’s rise was built on the policy of “independence in Europe”, which was devised more than a quarter of a century ago to stress the movement’s modernity. How times change. Almost a third of SNP voters were for Brexit, and the latest social attitudes survey suggests rising euroscepticism in Scotland. How can she please the pro-EU types and Brexity Nats? Not easily.

First, Sturgeon attempted to square the circle with a series of unsteady answers, in which she admitted that Scotland would be outside the EU. SNP spokespersons put up ‎afterwards emphasised they wanted to be in the Single Market, dropping the auotmatic insistence on full membership.

The Nats were trying to shift subtly to a Norway option (in the EEA, government by fax, no say on the rule-setting of the EU) without too much fuss. It may be a sensible position, or it may not. It is rooted in obfuscation and double dealing, however.

Among Nationalist activists and cybernats online this development on the EU created confusion. They never criticise the leadership and always back the official position – they are banned from doing otherwise. Really.

But what is the position?‎ To defend it, you have to know what it is, surely. Some SNP pro-EU types said the position had not changed. Swinney then said that they aim – aim – to achieve full membership. The EU has gone from being rock solid at the core of the SNP offering to one notch above a vague aspiration.

‎Against this backdrop of Nationalist travails, the handwringing and despair of assorted Unionists now looks ridiculous. It remains perfectly possible that the SNP will take Scotland independent at some point, but they’ve always wanted to do that and they perfectly beatable. Brexit is not the cause, it is merely being used by the SNP as an excuse for that to which it is unswervingly dedicated. They are, again, at it.

After the last week the SNP leadership is not in the strong position that seems to be assumed. That’s good news. As I keep saying: cheer up, Unionists, and get organising for a referendum in late 2019 or 2020.

In all this, Theresa May is a very lucky leader. The government she leads has had a dire week, with the Chancellor’s first budget ‎imploding and the police all over the Tory election expenses scandal. The Electoral Commission fined the Tories a record £70,000 for violations of the rules in the 2015 general election, and police are pursuing the party.

What is curious is that in these circumstances she, as yet, shows no inclination to strike out and do what she should, which is call an early election. The fixed term parliament act can be got round. The Labour party is in ruins, she needs a solid majority to get through the Brexit business and the SNP would be likely to go backwards and lose Westminster seats. Doing this would also mean that May could avoid several by-elections which may result from the expenses scandal.

Preparations are being made in CCHQ. Quietly, the party machine is being prepared and overhauled in case May opts to get decisive. She should do it now while the economy is okay and the SNP is in a state. There will not be a better moment.

Have a good weekend. Osborne has added a few new exclusives to his newslist, so I’ll publish the latest version soon.