As if we didn’t have enough to cope with, here comes news via the Daily Express of an “Arctic bomb to pulverise Britain with 1.5 feet of snow.” It’s one of the weather-obsessed newpaper’s regular warnings but this time the Express may have got the forecast right.
Cold air from Scandinavia is being pushed towards the UK by the polar vortex, and is set to dump several inches of snow across the North East and down across East Anglia, London and the East Midlands by early tomorrow morning.
Many parts of Scotland and the North got there first, with snow and temperatures of minus 6 or lower. More than 11cm has already fallen in Bingley in West Yorkshire, causing mayhem with around 700 homes without gas because of frozen pipes.
And it’s going to get worse. The Met Office forecasts that 11cm of snow could fall in East Anglia on Saturday, with up to 20 cm across the North and more across Scotland. Here in north Essex, my phone says 8am precisely, so we are shovel-ready.
It’s difficult to judge whether the arrival of this Arctic bomb is a blessing or a curse. On the one hand, the freezing weather will keep people at home so they are less likely to transmit the virus or catch it.
Reducing the R rate – the average rate of spread – is still top priority. As Prof Chris Whitty said earlier this evening at the PM’s press briefing, the number of cases remains high although there are signs of ‘levelling off.’ The R rate in the UK is slightly down at 1.2 to 1.3. The team at the Zoe Covid symptom study app infection survey suggest it is lower than that, even below 1 across the UK.
But if the weather is as severe as forecast, there will be all sorts of disruptions to the roads and railways, and, consequently, the staffing of health services and vaccine centres. With Boris Johnson confirming tonight that more than three million people have now been vaccinated, any disruptions to the so far brilliantly executed roll-out would be tragic. Some appointments for the elderly in Newcastle have already been postponed because of the weather. To ensure the programme can continue and hospitals stay open, the PM should call for more of the armed forces to help out. Your country needs you.
Let them throw snowballs
“Let me tell you about the very rich. They are different from you and me.” Scott Fitzgerald’s famous line from his 1926 short story, The Rich Boy, holds as true as ever.
Even more so when it comes to the rich protecting themselves against the Covid-19 virus: they are indeed different, and far more likely to wash their hands, wear masks and socially distance and of course, work from home.
Economists at Johns Hopkins University in the US found a striking positive link between a person’s income, and how likely it was that they were to protect themselves at the early stages of the pandemic.
Those earning $230,000 a year were 54 per cent more likely to follow self-protective behaviours than those making $13,000. Access to outdoor space was another big predictor of behaviour while, overall, women were also much more likely to social distance than men.
So what, you say? We know the rich are primed to take greater care of themselves than the less well-off, that it’s a natural Darwinian trait.
In which case, what’s the point of the study? Well, Nick Papageorge, economics professor at JH, says it’s vital that policymakers recognise who is going to socially distance – for how long, why and under what circumstances – to help predict how the disease will spread. More pertinently, such knowledge will inform policy decisions. That’s why government reprimands – and we have seen them here – to the public hinting that they are to “blame” for the spread of the disease have been thoughtless and meaningless.
Far better to gear policy to those who are living in homes without gardens, in high-rise flats or dense inner cities. It’s why Papageorge suggests giving people more freedom to exercise – such as keeping open parks and other spaces – as a risk worth taking. One that may even lead to better behaviour. Our Sage experts and No 10 should read this report. So too should the police, who must be extra careful about not penalising those throwing snowballs with fines – it’s good for the soul.
Merkel’s men
Whichever of the three male and Catholic lawyers vying to take over from Angela Merkel succeeds, he is going to have to fill some pretty big boots. One of the three men – Friedrich Merz, Armin Laschet and Norbert Röttgen – will be chosen tomorrow as the new chairman of the ruling Christian Democratic Union.
More than a 1,000 delegates will be casting their votes virtually at the congress meeting which has been delayed twice because of Covid. Yet whoever is elected as the CDU leader does not automatically take over from Merkel as Chancellor who has been in the job for a remarkable 16 years.
It’s more complicated than that: the new Chancellor will be chosen only after September’s state elections and if the CDU and the CSU were to win again.
While recent polling puts the more conservative Mertz in pole position, there is a dark horse to consider. He is Markus Söder, the state premier of Bavaria and head of the CSU, the sister party of the CDU. He’s been hitting 55 per cent in the polls and an astonishing 80 per cent among conservative voters across the country. Some say he is the top tip for Chancellor. A Protestant, he has a reputation for dressing up as Shrek or Marilyn Monroe during Bavaria’s carnival season. Forget the antics across the Atlantic: Germany’s elections are going to be the ones to watch this year. See more below.
Have a good snowy weekend.
Maggie Pagano,
Executive Editor