Six Nations: Grand Slam is England’s to lose

So we’ve the weekend off, and most of the players too. There’s been one unusual feature: the home and away score is 3-3. Wales have won  twice away from home, England once, while Ireland, Italy and Scotland have all lost on home territory. This might seem to make Wales favourites for the title. On the other hand, their performance, as distinct from the result, was unimpressive in both Paris and Rome.

England in contrast have been commanding. They subdued Ireland in Dublin and demolished France at Twickenham. They seem to have thrown off the intellectual and moral malaise that afflicted them last Spring and in the first two Summer Tests in South Africa where they let what should have been winning positions crumble. It’s been simple old-fashioned rugby, based on power and cohesion up front. The piano-shifters have done their work manfully, forcing the opposition back, and delivering good clean quick ball to the piano-players who, with time and opportunity, have made lovely music. The backs have had time and space in which to kick, pass or run.

Consequently, Ben Youngs has been in clover comfort, and looking happy and composed, unlike the harassed bunny he was last Spring. Outside him Owen Farrell has been running the show, and, rarely under pressure, his judgement of when to kick and when to pass has been excellent, while three-quarters and full-back have had an easier time and more opportunities than is usual in international rugby.

England must now be favourites not only for the title, but for the Grand Slam. Wales present them with a stiff obstacle in Cardiff next weekend. How stiff it’s hard to say. They had a very good Autumn, which is unusual for them, but they had a dreadful first half in Paris and won only because of two frightful French mistakes which gifted them tries. They struggled to assert themselves in Rome, but this means little, for Warren Gatland had – reprehensibly to my mind – chosen to make ten changes from the first round and field what was only a bit short of being a reserve team starting.

I was sorry Italy didn’t win, because I thought Gatland’s selection insulting to the Italians and to the Championship. Autumn internationals and development tours are the place for experimental national sides, while the concentrated nature of the World Cup pool stages make it necessary to rest stars from some matches. The Six Nations is different. Gatland showed inadequate respect for the tournament. Such criticism won’t matter to him. He won and he rested some of his stars in preparation for the Big One against England. If Wales win, most people will think him justified. If they lose… I for one will say “serves him right”.

It promises to be a fascinating match, featuring a reversal of traditional roles which, supposedly anyway, saw English power and stuffiness pitted against Welsh flair and adventure. Actually, Welsh flair has been as hard to spot as French flair in recent years, not indeed much in evidence since the glory days of the Seventies. Be that as it may, it’s now this England team that is playing head-up adventurous (as well as powerful) rugby, while the Welsh defence, masterminded by coach Sean Edwards, is the hardest to penetrate in the northern hemisphere – which, come to think  of it, really means in the world.

Still England have realized that you don’t have to penetrate a defence in order to score tries. You can put the ball beyond the defence and chase it. Do that successfully, or even near successfully a couple of times, and you induce uncertainty in even the best-drilled defence. For years I’ve argued elsewhere that teams are so obsessed with retaining possession that they are often far too reluctant to kick in attack. Look at the number of tries scored in Rugby League from the chip- or grubber- kick… Farrell’s England showed against France that kicking the ball deep with a fast winger in pursuit is an easier way of creating a try than any other.

English supporters have often crossed the Severn into Wales with good reason to expect that the team will win, only to return home grumbling about “the bloody Welsh”.  Wales are now on a long winning run, and, even if they have scarcely scintillated, they have a pack capable of matching England’s and experienced backs likely to be less naïve in defence than the French ones were. It’s reasonable to think that Wales may wear England down and instil some self-doubt in the men in white. One can make a case for saying that if the scores are close at half-time, Wales will do enough to win. On the other hand, England have been so masterful that it’s difficult to see them losing. If you can win in Dublin, why not in Cardiff?

They may also believe that victory in Cardiff will all but secure the title and indeed a Grand Slam, for it is impossible to see Italy winning at Twickenham in Round 4 and only the most optimistic of my fellow-Scots can be looking this year to see us record our first victory there since – wait for it – 1983.

Ireland got their show back on the road with what was in the end a fairly convincing win at Murrayfield. They will surely win in Italy this weekend and will then be favourites to beat France in Paris, after which their season would be determined on the last afternoon in Cardiff.

As for Scotland the loss to Ireland was doubly disappointing because they had reason to believe that they had restored the defences of Fortress Murrayfield and because they dominated the first half and yet conceded two tries to one while blowing chances to score again in the last five minutes of the half when they were camped in the Irish 22.  Still they will go to Paris next week with unusual optimism after the dreadful French show against England.

France’s coach Jacques Brunel could be forgiven if his head is spinning. He has a problem familiar to Scottish coaches in the first ten years and more of this century. Does he select experienced players who have lost more internationals than they have won and hope that by shuffling the cards, he can deal himself a stronger hand? Or does he throw apparently talented youngsters into the sea and hope that they can swim to dry land?

There are such youngsters. The Toulouse scrum-half, Antoine Dupont, looked good even against England when he replaced Morgan Parra, and his clubmate Romain Ntamack has obvious ability. But it’s a lot to ask kids to re-float a sinking ship.

With three rounds still to go, success may depend on enjoying the good fortune of avoiding injuries and keeping your best players fit. England didn’t seem to miss Maro Itoje against France; it may be different in Cardiff. They have now lost Mako Vunipola for the rest of the tournament, but the English cupboard is naturally better stocked than that of their rivals. They have after all as many top-flight professional clubs as Ireland, Wales, Scotland and Italy put together. I would think that Owen Farrell is their only indispensable player. Ireland have few immediate problems, partly because there is some time before what should be their next really hard game.  Scotland are running very short of back-row options with no chance of what might be their first-choice trio – John Barclay, Ryan Wilson and Hamish Watson – returning. That said, young Jamie Ritchie has taken his chance and played excellently.

So, after two rounds, the title is England’s to lose, and, unless they come adrift in Cardiff (which would see Wales supplant them as favourites), there’s a Grand Slam for the taking, a remarkable turnaround in twelve months, one which illustrates that the famous words of the former Australian coach Alan Jones – “one day a rooster, the next a feather duster” – work the other way round too, metaphorically anyway, since feather dusters can’t of course be re-cycled as roosters.