Riyadh leaves us none the wiser on any concessions Russia could make
Today’s talks were "not unsuccessful", is the non-committal conclusion from Russia’s top diplomat, a man still sanctioned by the West, who sat down for 4.5 hours of negotiations in Riyadh today with Ukraine’s biggest donor.
Alongside Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev, was also part of Moscow’s delegation in Riyadh. Dmitriev told Russian state TV this afternoon that they had enjoyed a “respectful, calm conversation” with America’s top diplomats, declaring: “the logic that existed under President Biden has been rejected.”
The US team, meanwhile, comprised of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz.
Washington claimed the contentious talks, in which Kyiv did not have a seat at the table, were a feeler, to see if the Kremlin is even serious about ending its invasion.
And is it?
Post-talks, Rubio acknowledged this was just “the first step of a long and difficult journey” before insisting he was "convinced" that Russia was "willing to begin to engage in a serious process" to end the war in Ukraine.
He and Lavrov agreed today to appoint high-level teams to continue negotiating a settlement and have also agreed to restore ambassadors to each other’s countries.
The Trump administration has reportedly set itself an ambitious target of Easter, just over two months away, to finalise a ceasefire deal for the three-year conflict. Though the Kremlin’s team warned that “intensive work” is needed before an in-person meeting is set up between Trump and Putin themselves.
As for Ukraine’s involvement, Rubio insisted that “no one is being sidelined", while the Kremlin’s spokesman said today that Putin is prepared to speak to Zelensky “if necessary”. Albeit with one important caveat: only once his “legitimacy” has been addressed.
This condition is a reference to the claim repeatedly made by Putin that Zelensky is no longer a “legitimate” leader because his five-year presidential term ran out in 2024. Ukrainian officials say that Russia’s continuing full-scale invasion, and the resulting imposition of martial law in Ukraine, have made it impossible to hold presidential elections. Though it’s unsurprising that Putin keeps bringing up this point; any presidential vote would create scope for Russian election interference.
It is worth acknowledging the potential for unfolding geopolitical events to inflate Russia’s power.
As Iain Martin reminded readers in his newsletter earlier this week (and if you haven’t, upgrade to paid to receive his newsletter next week) Russia has a population less than a third of Europe’s and an economy one tenth of its size.
It is also battling a demographic crisis, as its birth rate plunges and life expectancy falls. As James Rose wrote previously in Reaction, while Russia might have all the usual trappings of a great power status - a multi-trillion dollar economy, a large nuclear arsenal and a permanent seat on the UN Security Council - its dismally low life expectancy, even before Putin launched his war in Ukraine, undermines the country's outward appearance of strength and exposes a deeply dysfunctional society.
And Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been an abject failure when we remember that his original ambition had been to capture Kyiv within days.
Three years on, verifying casualty figures for soldiers in the Russia-Ukraine war is difficult and Moscow claims that estimates provided by the Armed Forces of Ukraine of over 800,000 Russian losses are wildly exaggerated. What we can say though is that both sides have lost a staggering number of troops and Russia has certainly more soldiers than in any war since the Second World War.
Despite all of this, there is a real danger that the US could broker a deal in which Moscow makes relatively few concessions. Or certainly far fewer than Kyiv.
A number of sources say that Ukrainian officials are, in private, accepting that re-gaining territory lost over the last few years may well be an unrealistic goal.
And Washington, which has called on Kyiv to give up on its ambition of joining NATO, has already given an indication of what concessions it is willing to offer up on behalf of Ukraine.
Today, Lavrov repeated his insistence that absorption of Ukraine into NATO would act as a "direct threat" to Russia and he also labelled the idea, promoted by Starmer yesterday, of a future European peacekeeping force in Ukraine to ensure any peace deal holds as “completely unacceptable”.
Meaning, despite emerging talk of potential Ukrainian concessions, we are still none the wiser on what compromises Russia might be willing to make.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
ON REACTION TODAY
Adam Boulton
Vance’s lecture to Europe was gaslighting in its purest form
Anthony Peters
Market doubts are emerging over the power of MAGA
ALSO KNOW
Healey unveils defence reform - Defence Secretary John Healey has announced the “biggest shake up of UK defence for over 50 years”. Speaking at the Institute for Government today, he has committed to tackling the lack of “consistent accountability” within UK defence and its current miring in “process and procedure”, appointing four senior leaders at the top who report to ministers: the permanent secretary, chief of the defence staff, chief of defence nuclear, and a new armaments director.
Prisons in England and Wales on “brink of collapse” - A damning review has found that the increase in severity of sentences has pushed the justice system close to collapse. According to the Independent Sentencing Review, knee-jerk “tough on crime” policies have overwhelmed the system, despite crime rates falling since the mid 1990s.
Israel to stay at five posts in Lebanon - The IDF is expected to remain at five military posts in Southern Lebanon posts to protect Israel’s northern communities. This comes after the deadline for troops to leave, agreed in the November ceasefire, passed this morning. Military presence is now primarily in mountainous terrain on the edge of the internationally recognised border between Israel and Lebanon.
Thames Water secures debt lifeline - The High Court has approved a £3 billion lifeline loan for the UK’s largest water and waste company, preventing the prospect of it coming under government control. The company will still face uncertainty, amid struggles with £19 billion worth of debt.
FIVE THINGS
Penal populism has broken Britain’s prisons. Lazy “tough on crime” rhetoric has led to a crisis of overcrowding, says David Gauke in The New Statesman.
China doesn’t want to lead an axis. Sergey Radchenko in Foreign Affairs on Beijing’s deep doubts about Russia and North Korea.
The Economist asks: will it be Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow?
Elon Musk’s wrecking ball: the world’s richest man is taking a torch to the American state on behalf of Donald Trump. Edward Luce in The Financial Times.
Why are we so afraid of Russia? As the article points out, it could not overwhelm or defeat a country a quarter its own size. It mouths threats about what it will do if this and that happens and then nothing happens. It goes to a fear of the nuclear arsenal and the meatgrinder tactics of the Russian military (no change there then!). But it also speaks of a Europe that has coasted too long under the American defense umbrella, has been undermined by defeatist self-loathing and a hollowing out of proud military traditions, and a reluctance to actually fight to win, rather than unilaterally declare "peace", up sticks and see all hell break loose. even Israel is seeing that the "ceasefire" in Gaza is revealing a Hamas renaissance, with all the culling of anyone suspected of collaborating with the Zionist entity!