Reform surge in Scotland won’t strengthen the Union
The big winners next May will still be the SNP.
When the voters of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse go to the polls on Thursday, it will be a test not just of local opinion but a verdict on SNP-run Scotland, in the approach to next year’s Scottish elections.
No wonder First Minister John Swinney is worried. The Holyrood seat, held since its creation in 2011 by the Nationalists, has become a two-way contest between the SNP and Reform, with the latter quite likely to win its first Scottish foothold.
A measure of how badly the by-election campaign has gone for Labour, which won the equivalent Westminster seat in last July’s general election with a huge swing from the SNP, came this week when Swinney appealed to Labour’s base to vote tactically.
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