Record small boat crossings in first three months of 2024

A record 4,644 migrants have crossed the Channel on small boats in the first three months of this year, more than any previous year since records began in 2018.

It will pile further pressure on the Prime Minister and his team who had pledged to “stop the boats.” Data released by the Home Office shows that this year’s current total is higher than the previous record of 4,548 set in January to March 2022. The annual record was also set in 2022 with 45,774 migrants crossing.

In 2023, the numbers for January to March dipped to 3,793 after the government’s landmark UK-Albania agreement on illegal migration that saw hundreds of Albanians returned. This seems to have acted as a deterrent for some time considering that as many as 16,000 Albanians arrived illegally in 2022. 

But that is where the success ends. In December 2023 it was reported that only 408 non-Albanian illegal immigrants had been returned since 2020. 

On today’s record statistics, a Home Office spokesperson said: “We remain committed to building on the successes that saw arrivals drop by more than a third last year.”

Shadow immigration minister Stephen Kinnock said: “Despite all the evidence to the contrary, Rishi Sunak keeps on telling the British people that small boat arrivals are coming down and his promise to stop the boats remains on track. Can he not see what is happening from inside his No. 10 bunker, or does he think we can’t see it for ourselves?”

As yet there has been no comment from Rishi Sunak. Last week, when asked about a day with record crossings (Wednesday 20 March, 504) Sunak could only refer to last year’s figures: “Our plan is working, the numbers last year were down by a third. That’s never happened before, that shows that we are making progress.”

But these numbers tell a different story. Stopping the small boats was one of Sunak’s initial five pledges through which he aimed to show he was “delivering for the British people”.

It is too early to tell yet, but today’s figures suggest that last year’s reduction was an aberration rather than the rule. There is not yet any data on the nationalities of the migrants, meaning that speculation on causes and solutions is somewhat premature.  

Critics of the government’s policy have also pointed out that today’s figures cover the winter months when the Channel is at its choppiest and crossings are lower. These numbers, they say, are bound to increase in the summer months when the seas become calmer. 

The record figures also come just as the government’s flagship Rwanda Bill, which is seen as a crucial part of Sunak’s pledge to stop the boats, has been delayed till after the Easter recess due to heavy defeats in the Lords.

In an election year, with the insurgent Reform party on his case, these new figures are the last thing the Prime Minister needed.