Raab: Britain will seek to impose new sanctions after fraudulent Belarus election
The British government has refused to accept the result of the Belarusian presidential elections and will seek to impose sanctions on members of the Belarusian authorities responsible for the violent suppression of peaceful protests. The election, in which Alexander Lukashenko, widely described as Europe’s last dictator, declared himself the victor with 80% of the vote, was described as “fraudulent” by Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab.
In the week following the result, Lukashenko has sought to quell widespread protests by imposing an internet blackout on the entire country and mandating police to arrest and beat up innocent protestors. Amnesty International has collected testimonies from protestors who described being tortured in detention centres, “including being stripped naked… and threatened with rape.” This was apparent in a video released by state TV in which severely bruised protestors, clearly under duress, promised “never to seek revolution again”.
The Foreign Office’s response brings the UK into line with Joe Biden, the US Democratic presidential nominee, who committed to stand with the people of Belarus “after suffering systemic repression for the past 26 years under an authoritarian regime”, as well as the European Union, which will consider reimposing sanctions after they were lifted four years ago. However, EU sanctions will only come after months of deliberations between member states, which could render the end result meaningless; and while Biden was quick to condemn Lukashenko, the White House itself has been slow to respond.
This is where Britain has a special opportunity. Without waiting for the arduous process of a coordinated EU response to conclude, the government could quickly impose its own sanctions via the Magnitsky Act. This would allow the Foreign Office to present post-Brexit Britain as a bulwark against authoritarianism, as it has done with sanctions on Russian officials. It would also be substantive: London hosts a notable proportion of assets held by Lukashenko and senior members of his regime, which could be frozen.
However, there are opportunities for British adversaries too. Lukashenko has successfully played Putin off against the EU in recent years, using the threat of pulling away from Russia’s sphere of influence to bargain for increased energy subsidies. Until recently, Lukashenko even claimed that Russia was planning to overthrow him, but now finds himself begging the Kremlin for life-support. Putin could use this moment of weakness to seek further integration, and perhaps even push for a common currency. In a recent call with Lukashenko, he offered Russian security assistance should Belarus request it.
The Russian president will not appreciate the notion of mass protests overthrowing a deeply-entrenched regime next door to his own country. As he saw with the Arab Spring, a popular and successful protest movement can work its way through a region like wildfire. Dissidents in Moscow would potentially find inspiration from the acts of protestors in neighbouring countries.
But there is also a scenario where the wave of protests becomes too large for Lukashenko to crush, even with Russian support. Social media has been awash in recent days with videos of workers joining in arms against the regime, including state TV operators and metro drivers. These are powerful and inspiring images.
The streets will be further animated by a statement from Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a former English teacher who was the main opposition candidate in the election, released today, in which she calls for a fresh set of presidential elections. Speaking from Lithuania, where she is in exile, Tsikhanouskaya said she is “ready to assume my responsibilities and act as national leader”, adding that while she did not want to become a politician, “destiny decreed that I would be on the front line in the face of arbitrariness and injustice.”
Tsikhanouskaya will have the support of the vast majority of European countries in her efforts. Crucially, this will likely include Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, whose presidents released a joint statement last Thursday calling for an immediate end to the use of force against civilians and the release of detained participants of political protests.
This regional dynamic has turned the domestic politics of a country of nine million citizens into a question about Russian regional hegemony, with potentially damaging implications for Russo-Western relations. Lukashenko will be comforted by Putin’s record on these matters. Russia is prone to defending every bit of influence it continues to have over former Soviet states, even if it means sustaining a deeply unpopular leader in power. Indeed, the situation in Belarus is beginning to resemble the 2014 Ukrainian revolution – and that didn’t end well for the West.
The Belarusian dictator, now more vulnerable than ever, remains adamant that his regime will survive. He told workers over the weekend that he would rather be killed than give in to the demands of protestors. These tend to be the last words of every former dictator, but it is too soon to bet against Lukashenko.