Power of Geography – The world is cycling back to a new Cold War
Five years. Time enough for China to publish a new economic plan, as it does every half decade. Enough for a novel virus to tell a global story about our economic and human fragility, and for the US to turn another page in the tale of its presidents.
It’s five years since the first edition of my book, Prisoners of Geography, which I was grateful to see become a success. I’m often asked if, due to the passage of time, it needs rewriting. The answer is that the actors change, but the stage remains much the same. Sure, Omar al-Bashir, then the leader of Sudan, ended up in a prison cell, but Sudan still relies on the River Nile to survive. Yes, the relationship between China and India has further deteriorated, but the Himalayas still stand and prevent an all-out land war between them.
So after several minor updates and reprints, better to write a new book – Power of Geography. It takes a similar approach to its predecessor in that the starting point of a country’s story is its location. In which direction does its rivers flow? Can the land sustain a large population? Are there natural barriers to guard against invasion? But Power looks at 10 different states and regions – Australia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UK, Greece, Turkey, the Sahel, Ethiopia, Spain, and Space.
One of the book’s themes is that we are back in a multipolar world after the bipolar world of the Cold War, and the brief unipolar moment of absolute American hegemony. Yet it is likely that we will cycle back to a new form of Cold War in which, when it comes to security matters, many countries will be forced to choose between siding with the US or China. Some states are using this interim period to better position themselves; others are already signalling their intent.
Of the former, Turkey is the best example. President Erdogan has spent the years since the failed 2016 coup against him dismantling Ataturk’s secular legacy and is pushing a ‘Neo-Ottoman’ foreign policy. In the absence of the discipline of the Cold War and its ‘World Policemen’, Erdogan is attempting to create the ‘Blue Homeland’ – a return to the territorial boundaries in the Mediterranean before the settlements of the 1920s. He’s also pushing eastwards into formerly Ottoman controlled Iraq, Syria, and Libya. Turkey, a NATO country, has even bought an advanced missile defence system from Russia to the absolute fury of the Americans. This would not have happened in the previous era.
Australia is an example of a country already signalling it will stick with the Americans (as long as they stick with it). When PM Scott Morrison called for an international inquiry on the origins of Covid-19, Beijing hit Australia with punitive tariffs on a range of products. Its state-run media described the country as ‘gum stuck to the bottom of China’s shoe’ a reference to its geographical location and perceived status. Canberra refused to back down. Perhaps this can be partially put down to the bloody-minded spirit of the Aussies not caring to be pushed about, but it’s also because they are betting on America. Australia hosts a US Marine base near Darwin and a ground station for satellite intelligence gathering near Alice Springs – prime real estate the US does not want to lose.
The Australian navy cannot robustly defend all of the sea lanes around the entire continent, and the country is dependent on imported energy and so is vulnerable to blockade. As such it needs to make friends and influence people, preferably friendly people with a large navy – the US. So far, the American commitment looks solid. Along with Japan and India the two countries make up the ‘The Quad’ – an informal strategic alliance which hopes to prevent China from dominating the Indo-Pacific region.
Elsewhere, the global attempt to wean economies away from fossil fuels, and the simultaneous American achievement of becoming energy self-sufficient, is destined to have a huge effect on the Middle East. The Americans are trying to slowly withdraw from the region to focus on the Indo-Pacific. The Saudis have read the future; their ‘Saudi 2030’ project hopes to diversify the economy to embrace tourism and renewables, notably solar power. They aren’t yet running out of oil, but they are running out of time. When the oil was found the population was about 2 million. Now it is 34 million. If people stop buying your oil, what sustains the 34 million people? Another problem – without the Americans, but with a hostile Iran just across the Gulf, Saudi Arabia will need to invest in a properly trained and motivated military, not just one with shiny, state of the art weapons. If Iran does build a nuclear bomb, Saudi is expected to follow suit.
We hear that ‘geography no longer matters.’ But what if a government places a laser-armed satellite above another country’s communication satellites and has a line of fire down to a capital city. That’s a very 21st century example of why geography always matters. There’s never really a ‘final frontier’, but this is as close as it gets, and frontiers tend to be lawless places. By what agreed law do you say I can’t place my killer satellite over your country? Our current treaties are years behind our technology.
Technology changes aspects of how to think about geographic factors, but it doesn’t change the fact that geography remains as vital as ever.
Power of Geography by Tim Marshall is published by E&T Books and is available now.