Politicians trying to re-inflame the Brexit wars are wasting their time

While pollsters suggests a majority favours closer relationships with Europe, the British public can see that rejoining the EU is a dead issue and it has moved on.

via R7KJD9/ Alamy

Until Liz Truss spoilt the game, I liked to ask groups I spoke to who was the worst prime minister this century. Warmonger Blair, election loser Brown, Brexit fumbler May, Boris Johnson, a credible case could be made for any of them.

To my initial surprise, one name kept getting the black spot, particularly from business people: David Cameron. He was the leader they blamed for blithely plunging the nation into the whole Brexit mess. They accuse Cameron of holding the referendum not in any national interest but in a glib attempt to manage the Conservative party. Having bungled even that he then walked away humming, without looking back.

The Cameron bashers were not interested in refighting the old battles for Leave or Remain or rejoining the European Union. What is done is done. They just felt that thanks to Cameron and the Tories, the UK has wasted the past decade, arguing bitterly over a matter of secondary importance.

Membership was never at the top of the British people’s list of concerns. There is no consistent record of what the electorate thought about it because for much of the 1980s pollsters did not think it was worth asking the question.

Faction fighters on the right forced the EU issue to the top of the agenda – egged on by a largely foreign or expat-owned national press. It was a welcome excuse and distraction from their failure to deal satisfactorily with what really mattered such as the cost of living, the NHS, schools or immigration.

The referendum which Cameron offered had little to do with the issue of the EU itself. Then the indolence of the Remain campaign of which he made himself chief, permitted Leave to exploit the mood of generalised resentment against globalisation, elites and immigrants.

It turns out that it was impossible to take back control entirely or to preserve immaculate sovereignty if, as the UK needs must, a country wishes to interact with others around the world.

The details of Sir Keir Starmer’s “new era” of relations with the EU do not amount to much. Estimates are that it might add 0.2% of the UK annual GDP by 2040 compared to the hit from Brexit which most economists have factored in.

In almost all areas, from defence procurement to young people’s mobility, the declared “win-win” has yet to be converted into tangible benefits for either side.

Commitments to work together better on food and agriculture, energy, and migration crime are of mutual advantage. But hundreds of hours of tough negotiations will be needed to turn warm words into reality.

Britain has made one major concession up front by agreeing the extension of the rights of EU boats to fish in British waters for another twelve years. What The Sun newspaper calls “Being done up like a kipper” actually amounts to “no change” in the status quo for what is a very small but highly symbolic industry. In exchange, the UK government believes it has obtained a commitment, particularly from France, that the fishing issue will now be decoupled from further negotiations about other aspects of the UK-EU relationship. Consumers on either side of the Channel may benefit from better access to each other’s marine produce.

Starmer and his team have achieved one major, if largely overlooked, strategic victory. For all the emphatic insistence from Brussels and Brexit negotiator Barnier that there should be no “cherry picking”, it is now clear that the future relationship envisioned by both sides will be made up of precisely that. Issues between the two sides will be hammered out painstakingly on a case-by-case basis.

There is no appetite here or there for the UK to sign back up to the European ideal of ever greater union. For all the regret expressed by former partners at the time of our leaving, Britons delude themselves if they think the Europeans are desperate to let us back in.

In hindsight, many in the EU regard the UK’s departure as the logical conclusion to its uneasy participation in the union. Member states welcomed the pragmatism of British politicians and the efficiency of British civil servants but the abuse freely dished out for decades by the British Eurosceptic politicians and their allies in the press has left deep and unhealed wounds.

The Europeans would be fools to let us back in if we were to start doing it all again. The moment of rejoining would be sure to be accompanied by threats of yet another referendum to leave. In any case it seems unlikely that that there could ever be terms to rejoin acceptable to a British government. Next time the UK would be treated like every other applicant nation. There would be no re-instatement of the hard-won opt-outs on joining the Eurozone and Schengen or a special rebate on contributions to the budget.

Barring a global cataclysm – such as a war in which the UK and Europe were on the same side quite possibly against a MAGA USA – the UK rejoining the EU is not going to happen.

Those now trying to re-inflame the Brexit wars by denouncing Starmer’s modest package of agreements as a “surrender” are wasting their time. The British public can see that rejoining the EU is a dead issue and it has moved on. If they care at all. When pressed by opinion pollsters a majority consistently say they are in favour of closer relationships with Europe and the EU.

Rather than denounce the “reset”, Kemi Badenoch and Priti Patel would have done the Conservative party a favour if they had ignored it or dismissed it as trivial.

Reform went through the motions of denunciation for the benefit of their older and slower supporters but Nigel Farage has cannily moved on from the Europe issue, after picking up his European parliamentary salary and pension. He happily concedes that others have mishandled the Brexit which he sold to the country. Nor was Reform responsible for the spike in immigration since then either, Conservative governments were. That has now become the focal point of the generalised public dissatisfaction which Farage is harvesting so adeptly.

Chasing after the Reform UK dog has put the Conservative party into fourth place in the latest poll behind Reform, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Starmer does not seem to have noticed. He too is twitching nervously towards Reform UK as he talks tough on immigration.

The prime minister also seems reluctant to talk up the advantages of his deal with the EU. He prefers to talk about the limits, caps and red lines he is insisting on in future relations between Britain as “an independent sovereign nation” and the EU.

Starmer has grasped that in all likelihood there are not many votes left here either way in “the question of Europe”. The subject has reverted to where it was for most of Britain’s four decades of membership.The UK relationship with the EU is a boring and technical fact of life best left to politicians and officials to handle in the background.

Those cynically trying to re-ignite the old antipathies are banging a worn-out drum.

In the Conservative roll call of failed leadership, Liz Truss self-destructed in a one-off immolation of incompetence. Cameron, May and Johnson all played the Europe game cynically and ultimately to their detriment. Kemi Badenoch should avoid the trap.