Political market sentiment: buy Salmond, sell Sturgeon

When it was first announced that Alex Salmond, former SNP leader and First Minister of Scotland, was to stand trial on 13 charges of sexual misconduct, the Scottish media and political village looked forward to witnessing an exceptional courtroom drama: Scotland’s equivalent of the Dreyfus case. In the event, due to even more dramatic developments in the world of epidemiology, it was something of a damp squib in terms of public interest. It was as if the Dreyfus trial had taken place at the height of the Black Death.

That does not mean there were no fireworks in the courtroom – it could hardly have been otherwise, with the formidable Gordon Jackson, Dean of the Faculty of Advocates, leading Salmond’s defence team.

Unfortunately, due to health preoccupations, public attention was at best patchy. Beyond that, even intelligent observers found themselves perplexed by the reporting of some of the evidence.

The scrappy reporting by Scottish mediafolk made it difficult to form any clear impression of the case – understandably, in view of the other preoccupations assailing reporters. Salmond remained impassive throughout the proceedings and betrayed no triumphalism after the verdict, closing his remarks to the media today with expressions of concern for people during the epidemic.

He was cleared on 12 charges. On a 13th charge the verdict was “not proven”, a unique feature of the Scottish system.

After the verdict, Salmond delivered himself of one ominous observation: “As many of you will know, there was certain evidence I would like to have seen led in this trial but for a variety of reasons we weren’t able to do so. At some point that information, that fact and that evidence will see the light of day…” Or, in plain language, “Watch this space, Nicola.” When normal political activity is resumed a Salmond counter-offensive is to be expected, one that will make the internal activities of the SNP resemble the Battle of Kursk.

At least on his native heath, Salmond is no ordinary politician. He is a veteran operator with skills far superior to anyone else on the Scottish political scene. Unless he gets religion sometime between now and the resumption of normal public life, the clever money is on him seeking revenge against all those he perceives as his enemies.

If he does so, it will be with reinforced credibility after his vindication by the courts. In that context, there is more legal ammunition in his locker than the acquittal on charges of criminal offences. It should be recalled that Salmond had already won a civil case, in January 2019, when Lord Pentland ruled in the Court of Session that the Scottish government’s complaints process against him in relation to sexual harassment allegations had been “unlawful in respect that that they were procedurally unfair” and had been “tainted with apparent bias”. The Scottish government admitted it had breached its own guidelines by appointing an investigating officer who had “prior involvement” in the case.

Salmond was awarded costs of £512,250. That embarrassed surrender by the Scottish government is the worst possible foundation on which to mount a defence against the Salmond counterattack that will surely come. Already the Salmondistas are making warlike noises. Kenny McAskill, MP and former Scottish justice minister, tweeted after Salmond’s acquittal: “Some resignations now required.”

Joanna Cherry, MP, whom some have touted as a possible successor to Nicola Sturgeon, said: “Some of the evidence that has come to light both in the judicial review and at this trial raise very serious questions over the process that was employed within the Scottish government to investigate the alleged complaints against Mr Salmond, and I am sorry to say some of the evidence also raises serious question marks over how these complaints were handled by the SNP.”

To Scottish separatists Alex Salmond is a messianic figure. He led them from a taxi-load of Westminster MPs to a near-clean sweep of Scottish Westminster seats, an independence referendum and 13 years of government at Holyrood. He came closer than any other individual to securing an independent Scotland: in that respect, though he would not relish the comparison, he is separatist Scotland’s Nigel Farage. Now he has come back from the reputational brink after facing allegations that many SNP supporters, instinctive conspiracy theorists, will see as a politically motivated attempt to destroy him.

This will split the SNP as never before. The clear target of the rage that Salmond’s supporters feel will be Nicola Sturgeon, in tandem with the Scottish government apparatus. While the fog of an epidemic cloaks the political battlefield this may not be immediately obvious; but, in the long term, it looks as if we are witnessing the beginning of the end for Nicola Sturgeon and her administration. In market terminology: buy Salmond, sell Sturgeon.