Poland and Hungary should stick to the EU’s rules – or leave

Would it really matter – to the European Project, that is – if Poland and Hungary seceded from the EU? They are clearly far more trouble than they are worth, and what they are worth is largely a product of their EU membership, which ensures them free access to the Single Market and billions of euros each year in grants, subsidies and loans. 

It was Margaret Thatcher who championed the drive to the east that drew into the fold the former East Bloc countries, including what was then Czechoslovakia. Wily old François Mitterrand was against it, believing that the countries concerned needed to reacquire democratic values before joining the club. 

He was right, of course. But Thatcher persisted, with the support of Helmut Kohl, who could hardly reject applications from other ex-Communist nations when he was so obviously set on reintegrating the former East Germany into the Federal Republic as soon as possible. 

At any rate, negotiations were opened, not only with Poland, Hungary and the newly separated Czech Republic and Slovakia, but with the three Baltic states, as well as Slovenia, Cyprus and Malta. All ten joined the Union in 2004, followed three years later by Romania, Bulgaria and, most recently, Croatia. Waiting in the wings, meanwhile, are the various fag-ends of what was once the eminently sensible federation of Yugoslavia, led (if that is the word) by Serbia. 

All eleven of the new arrivals to date have caused problems for Brussels, which has simultaneously transferred huge sums of cash eastwards while endorsing the westwards movement of East Bloc job-seekers who then send as much of their income home as they can afford before, in many cases, returning home, replete with cash, to open new businesses. 

I think any dispassionate economist assessing the current geo-political landscape would conclude that the EU made more sense, as a unit, when its eastern border stopped at the Oder and the Danube. The strategy pursued by the governments of Poland and Hungary, often backed by the Czechs and Slovaks (making up the Visegrad Group) is clear evidence that the Union has developed an enemy within that, if not suppressed, could yet spell disaster for the European ideal. 

It isn’t a question of disliking, or distrusting, all former Communist states. Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have certainly posed problems for the EU (and Nato). But for the most part, aware of their position strung out along Russia’s western border, they have behaved responsibly and have done their utmost to work with the grain of Europe. The same can even be said of Romania and Bulgaria which, while far from being model states, are arguably doing their best to apply the rules.

Poles and Hungarians are very much part of Europe’s shared history, and they are gifted peoples. No one, I submit, wishes actively to show them the door. 

At the end of the day, however, it is up to the governments in Warsaw and Budapest to show that they are prepared to be good citizens. Their predecessors applied to join the European Union. They signed the treaties, including the Lisbon Treaty. They agreed that the European Court of Justice was the ultimate arbiter in matters relating to EU law. They also swore to uphold the terms of the European Convention on Human Rights, most pertinently in respect of an independent judiciary. As a result, by their own admission, they and those who came after them profited mightily. Between 2014 and 2020, Poland received just under €195 billion (£164bn) in payments out of the EU budget, made up of economic incentives and farm subsidies. Over the same period, it paid in a total of €62bn, representing a balance in its favour of €133bn. 

Hungary, with a population of just 11 million, has regularly been the third highest recipient of EU largesse – averaging in excess of €4 billion a year – and receives far more by way of cheap loans and grants from the European Investment Bank than it ever pays in. 

Are their present governments grateful? Not in the least. They regard the money as theirs by right. In return, they demand to be left alone to govern their countries in whatever fashion they choose, regardless of EU rules and obligations.

In response, the Commission has suspended the payment of billions of euros intended to help the pair recover from the Covid pandemic and raised the possibility of withholding billions more in grants and subsidies.

Both the Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, of the Law and Justice Party, and Hungary’s Viktor Orban, leader of the right-wing Fidesz group, deny that they wish to leave the EU. They are loyalists who subscribe to the dream, they say. But, equally, they have refused to repeal laws aimed at curtailing judicial freedom and have refused to accept any immigrants, especially Muslim immigrants, who have been accepted into the EU in recent years. In short, they wish to have their cake and eat it. And we know how that goes. 

Morawiecki, for one, is in no mood to take prisoners. The EU, he said, was “holding a gun to our heads” and “threatening World War III”. But Poland would not yield. “We will defend our rights with any weapons at our disposal.”  

The Hungarian foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto, though more subdued in his choice of words, was no less forthright: “We will not compromise on these issues because we are a sovereign nation. And no one, not even the European Commission, should blackmail us regarding these policies.” 

Sovereignty, as the UK understands better than most, is an emotive issue that cuts both ways, and Poland and Hungary, as independent nation states, would have every right to pass their own laws, however unpopular with their neighbours. It is as members of the European Union and signatories to the treaties that they are currently in breach of their obligations. The process has not yet been exhausted. There is still room for negotiation and compromise, on both sides. But in the end, they have to comply with the rules laid down in the treaties or else their membership has to be suspended. Either that or they should invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, Brexit-style, with all that that entails. It is as simple, and as complicated, as that. 

In both countries, moves are afoot to resolve the situation without bloodshed. There have been street protests in Poland and a coming-together of opposition parties in Hungary in advance of an upcoming general election. Angela Merkel has urged the two sides to find a middle course. With luck, the pair will agree to change course before it is too late. 

Only a fool would predict what will happen next. These things tend to be long and drawn out, with twists and turns that persist right to the end. I would say only that it is not impossible to imagine a European Union without Poland and Hungary, or indeed, (if that’s what they want) without any of the members of the Visegrad Group. The resulting European Union, though somewhat reduced in size and population, would be richer and more cohesive. Those excluded could, if they wish, remain within the Customs Union. A renewed form of associate membership could be devised that even served to embrace the remaining statelets of the former Yugoslavia. 

A looser, broader-based European Economic Area, with the Eurozone at its core, could even – who knows? – be something that the UK might in future be tempted to join.

Poland and Hungary have thrown down the gauntlet. The Commission, backed by the Court of Justice and the European Council, must pick it up.