Partial win for Boris as Barnier meets some of his demands

EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier’s statement this afternoon, following a call with his British counterpart, has vastly improved the chances of a Brexit trade deal being agreed in the coming weeks. “I just spoke to David Frost,” Barnier tweeted. “I confirmed that the EU remains available to intensify talks in London this week, on all subjects, and based on legal texts. We now wait for the UK’s reaction.”

The tweet matters because it was specifically worded to meet the requirements set out by Downing Street for negotiations to continue; Michael Gove today told the Commons that the government was not ready to return to the table until the EU agreed to intensify talks and “engage on all the outstanding issues.”

Barnier’s statement also suggests the EU is preparing to offer a major concession on fisheries, which it hopes will unlock British concessions on state aid. Barnier is said to have been frustrated in recent days with the reluctance of coastal states to soften their demands for fishing rights.

But Number 10 has insisted Brussels must still go further. Lord Frost, Britain’s chief negotiator, tweeted:

“Constructive discussion with Michel Barnier today. Noted his proposal to intensify work, as we have been asking. But the EU still needs to make a fundamental change in approach to the talks and make clear it has done so. We will stay in close touch.”

Negotiations are now in a better place, though. The explosive rhetoric of the last few days has given both sides cover to make final concessions.

The UK government will claim to have frightened the EU back to the table, but will likely have to agree to a substantial domestic subsidy regime with some oversight from an international arbiter. Likewise, the EU coastal states, especially France, will claim to have stood their ground on fishing and forced the UK to agree to generous fishing quotas, but will have to accept the UK’s ultimate claim to its sovereign waters and ultimately lose free access.

Not done yet, but beyond all the rhetoric for domestic audiences they appear to be inching towards a compromise deal.

Will a lockdown work for Wales?

Wales will go into a full national lockdown for two weeks beginning this Friday. The country’s 3.1million residents will be ordered to stay at home unless it is absolutely necessary to leave, and all pubs, restaurants, hotels and non-essential shops will close. Secondary schools will also be severely affected, with only years 7 and 8 returning immediately after the half term break.

First Minister Mark Drakeford has claimed the country’s health system will be overwhelmed without drastic action, but it is unclear how a short lockdown will help in the long-term fight against the virus, especially since the Welsh government has not stated an intention to improve its Test and Trace infrastructure in that period. There may well be a resurgence of cases as soon as the lockdown is lifted – what would Drakeford do then?

In a timely reminder of the stark consequences of Covid-suppression policies, the ONS today revealed that the number of deaths in private homes in Wales between December 2019 and September 2020 was 1,642 more than the five-year average for the same period, and that these deaths mostly did not involve coronavirus.

Sarah Caul, Head of Mortality Analysis at the ONS, commented: “While deaths in hospitals and care homes have dropped below the five-year average since the initial peak of the coronavirus pandemic, we’ve consistently seen deaths in private homes remain well above the five-year average.”

She added: “While deaths of heart disease are below average in hospital, it has been above average at home. It’s a similar picture when looking at prostate cancer for males and Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease for females.”

Scientists who’ve analysed the public health response have long warned of the mortal consequences of inflating the threat of coronavirus. It was feared that patients with far more deadly conditions, such as heart attacks and strokes, would not seek the immediate medical help they require, with fatal consequences.

Today’s data suggests those fears have become a reality in thousands of homes, yet it seems few lessons have been learned.

No vaccine anytime soon, but testing hopes return

Don’t get your hopes up for a magical cure. “It’s unlikely we’ll have a Covid vaccine for any sort of widespread use in the community before at least spring next year,” Sir Patrick Vallance, the Chief Scientific Adviser, told a Commons committee this evening.

This reality has focussed minds in Downing Street on the need for a sustainable coronavirus strategy.

The good news is that ministers are increasingly hopeful that the rapid, lateral-flow test that has been promised for months will finally be delivered in the coming weeks, allowing for millions of tests to be carried out every week – and potentially even every day – delivering near-instant results.

I know what you’re thinking – we’ve heard this all before – but this time does seem different. It is notable that Siemens launched one of these lateral-flow tests in Europe last week. The rapid kit looks and operates like a pregnancy test, producing results within 15 minutes, and the company claims it has “96.7% sensitivity and 99.2% specificity based on clinical study of 317 subject.”

The technology could be trialed in UK university hotspots within days.

Mutaz Ahmed
Political Reporter