As we wait it is worth sweeping the rubble of the weekend’s media coverage away, to try and make a calm assessment of the state of the battlefield ahead of tomorrow’s great vote on the government’s Brexit Deal. In recent times bellowing, abuse, trolling, and plain rudeness have been substituted for debate and disagreement. We know it sells newspapers and wins presidential elections but if that’s what you are looking for here go elsewhere. It is an unedifying spectacle and no participant occupies the high ground.
So where are we and how might things work out?
Whether you are a Remainer, a Brexiteer, a Remainer turned Brexiteer, a Brexiteer who would now vote Remain or the reverse, or a couldn’t care lesser, or you hold any other position, it is worth reminding ourselves briefly how we reached our current position. As Prime Minister David Cameron won the 2015 General Election on a manifesto including the promise of a European Referendum. He won the election and asked Parliament to approve the holding of a referendum. It did. Those who want the United Kingdom to leave the European Union won more votes than those who wanted the country to remain a member of the EU.
It fell to Theresa May, who had won the contest to become Leader of the Conservative Party and therefore Prime Minister, to go to Parliament to ask for approval from MPs to send the European Union a letter stating the United Kingdom’s intention to leave the Union. MPs gave Mrs May their support and the letter was sent triggering Article 50. In 2017 Mrs May called a General Election in which both the Conservative and Labour Parties promised to honour the result of the referendum and between them secured over 80 per cent of votes cast. The legislation MPs approved stating the leaving date of 29 March 2019 contains no provision for any deal or agreement as a requirement of departure. It is therefore fair to say that we are where we are because the House of Commons under two Prime Ministers across two Parliaments and two general elections has brought us to this position.
It is worth remembering that the European referendum was advisory, not binding. Parliament is sovereign. No Parliament can bind the hands of its successor. What Parliament agrees to it can reverse. Whether it is wise for it to do so is a secondary point. The supremacy of Parliament, of the House of Commons, is what Magna Carta, the Civil War, and all sorts of tussles between the Monarch and Parliament has been about all through the history of our island nation – and it is exactly what the Brexit referendum was about. The referendum was about restoring independence and control to our Parliament.
In recent times the power of Monarchs has been expressed through the executive, drawing its power from its control of the House of Commons. If you cannot command a majority in the House of Commons then you cannot govern. When James Callaghan was defeated in a motion of confidence in 1979 there had been no coup, he had simply lost the confidence of the House of Commons. All governments lose votes including governments with large Commons majorities. Wise governments adapt accordingly.
Over the last two years Mrs May has resolutely gone about the business of negotiating an agreement with the European Commission on the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU. She has done so in the face of what is increasingly extraordinary behaviour from parliamentary colleagues and a fairly large section of the media, some of which have lost all sense of balance and proportion.
Voters, whilst showing an increasing desire for the whole process to be got on with, have seemingly remained pretty steady in their view that on balance the UK should leave the EU. They remain as unmoved on the whole in the face of dire consequences as they did throughout the referendum campaign. Mrs May has kept faith with the voters and opinion polling would tend to suggest that many voters are keeping faith with her.
On Tuesday MPs will vote on the agreement Mrs May has negotiated. It would be as well if they voted to approve it, so some sense of calm can be restored and other business addressed. All the commentary tends to suggest that this will not be the case. This will do harm to all involved, but – but – it is the right of the House of Commons to do as it pleases even if we think it is wrong.
We can argue, protest, clutch our heads, sing loud hosannas, wring our hands, chant the Te Deum in happiness, to express whatever we want to about what’s going on but that the country voted for Parliament to be in control of the nation’s destiny is beyond dispute – and the glory and wonder of our democracy in all it’s messiness and noise working its way through the Parliamentary processes is something we all ought to be able to unite around because if Brexit is about anything it is about that. All the rest we can argue about.