Now for the dirty deals…
Suella Braverman is the latest candidate to be eliminated from the Tory leadership race, setting the stage for a week of frantic backroom deal-making.
Five candidates progress to the next round:
Rishi Sunak – 101 votes (+13)
Penny Mordaunt – 83 votes (+16)
Liz Truss – 64 votes (+14)
Kemi Badenoch – 49 votes (+9)
Tom Tugendhat – 32 votes (-5)
The order remains unchanged from yesterday, with Sunak leading the pack. Team Rishi might have hoped to hoover up more of Jeremy Hunt and Nadhim Zahawi’s votes, which were pretty evenly spread between the remaining candidates. Even so, Sunak is now just 19 votes short of the 120 votes needed to reach the final two.
All eyes are on the tussle for second place, which at the moment looks to be between Truss and Mordaunt. Badenoch could play queenmaker to either, determining who becomes the candidate of the party’s right. Could she be tempted to strike a deal?
Mordaunt may be very popular with the grassroots, but she still needs to make it into the last two. Boris Johnson topped poll after poll of Tory members in the summer of 2019, making his eventual victory feel pre-ordained. The difference is that Johnson had MPs from all wings of the party rallying behind him. This isn’t the case with Mordaunt.
Braverman’s votes are now up for grabs. She had the backing of some of the most enthusiastic Brexiteers, and Truss will hope that many of those supporters head her way. Team Truss even praised Braverman today, saying she had run a campaign “she can rightly be proud of”.
But Badenoch will be fighting tooth and claw for the Braverman votes. One Kemi-supporting MP told the Telegraph: “They were saying she wouldn’t get the 20 – and now she has almost 50. With a good chunk of Suella’s votes she can out-do Liz.”
It’s a remarkable rise for Badenoch, who only became an MP in 2017. Still, she is very much a dark horse. Were she to be knocked out next week, where her votes go will be crucial in determining the final two.
With five fewer MPs backing him compared to yesterday, it looks like Tom Tugendhat’s race is run. His votes are more likely to switch to Sunak and Mordaunt than to Truss.
Still, things could change. The upcoming TV debates could make or break any of the remaining candidates. Channel 4 will host the first at 7pm tomorrow, followed by ITV on Sunday and Sky on Monday. The last rounds of voting will take place on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, leaving us with a final two by Wednesday evening.
There’s every chance of a car-crash performance sinking a campaign or an underdog emerging as the obvious choice. Tugendhat and Badenoch may be trailing, but the chance of a big hitter imploding on live TV will be keeping their hopes alive.