Northern Ireland set to break two-year long political deadlock
After almost two years of political deadlock, Northern Ireland is at long last on the cusp of restoring its devolved government, and could, by the end of the week, have a nationalist First Minister for the first time in its history.
Sir Jeffrey Donaldson emerged from five hours of tense overnight talks with his party’s executive today and declared that he was leading the DUP back into a power-sharing government at Stormont, ending the unionist party’s 726-day long boycott.
Talks were held at the remote Larchfield Estate – chosen for its security – and those attending weren’t even given the location until three hours before the meeting began.
The DUP started its political boycott in protest over the post-Brexit trade arrangements made for Northern Ireland under Boris Johnson’s Northern Ireland Protocol. The party objected to the checks carried out on goods coming from Great Britain, which meant Northern Ireland was subject to hundreds of EU laws and regarded, in trade terms, as a foreign country to the rest of the UK.
Rishi Sunak had hoped that the heavily negotiated Windsor Framework deal he signed last spring – which reduced checks by having green and red lanes distinguish between goods going to Northern Ireland and those bound for the Republic of Ireland – would persuade the DUP to return to Stormont, but the party insisted the changes still didn’t go far enough.
Now, Donaldson has finally agreed to return to the Northern Ireland Assembly in light of a revised package of measures put forward by Westminster.
The UK government is expected to publish the fine details of this package tomorrow. Meaning we don’t yet know exactly how they trump the Windsor Framework in addressing the DUP’s trade concerns.
It’s difficult to imagine how any agreement which entirely scrapped all checks or paperwork on goods being sent to Northern Ireland from England, Scotland and Wales could be squared with the EU’s demands.
Though Donaldson has said that the proposed revisions mean Northern Ireland will no longer be “automatically” following future EU laws. And Chris Heaton-Harris, Westminster’s Northern Ireland secretary, insisted that “significant changes” have been made after he listened to the DUP’s concerns.
“All the conditions are now in place” for the return of the Northern Ireland Assembly, added Heaton-Harris, who also confirmed today that a financial package worth £3.3 bn – money Westminster has held at ransom until the DUP ended its boycott – will be available to the incoming executive.
So, what next?
After the UK government deal in full on Wednesday, the legislation is expected to pass all stages in Westminster on Thursday. This would lead to a recall of the Northern Ireland assembly by as early as Friday. The assembly is expected to sit on either Friday or Saturday to elect a new speaker, after which assembly members will elect Stormont ministers.
While the two rival parties – the DUP and Sinn Féin – will jointly lead the new executive, this time round, there will be a crucial difference.
Power-sharing will resume with the DUP acting as a junior partner to Sinn Fein.
The DUP, as the largest unionist party, will nominate a deputy first minister. But, for the first time ever, the nationalist Sinn Féin party holds the power to nominate a First Minister because it won the largest number of seats in the assembly election last year.
This sets up Michelle O’Neill, Sinn Féin’s Vice President – who spoke earlier of “a day of optimism” – to become First Minister.
The fact that the most senior job title in Northern Ireland will be held by a woman who leads a party with the ultimate goal of a united Ireland is a significant moment in the region’s politics.
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