The NHS crisis reminds us just how weak Theresa May really is

A few weeks ago it seemed that the tide against Theresa May was finally beginning to turn. It was clear that she would never be able to reclaim her feverish pre-election popularity, but her tenacity in the face of a ludicrously bad year had begun to win her a grudging respect. Her colleagues and the Westminster commentariat adjusted themselves up for the possibility that she really would survive until 2022. The maniacal gleam in the eye of former Chancellor, and leading critic of May, George Osborne started to fade.

And then the annual NHS winter crisis reared its head. On Wednesday morning, NHS chiefs took the unprecedented decision to cancel 55,000 routine appointments in order to free up beds and medical staff, and, to add insult to injury, the ban on mixed-sex wards was lifted.  As if on cue, claims of elderly people dying on hospital corridors in “Third World Conditions” went viral and a flurry of obscure back bench opposition MPs appeared to tweet about the evil, murdering Tories.

So far, so predictable. Yet over the last 48 hours, the story has taken an unexpected turn. Instead of crumbling under pressure, Keith Willett of the NHS issued a robust response detailing the myriad of sensible ways in which the system had prepared itself for the crisis, and Jeremy Hunt offered himself up to the gnashing teeth of the media to remind everyone, with remarkable confidence and poise, just how much money had been pumped into the health service in the autumn budget.

And incredibly, their messages hit home.

As a result, the comfortable, lazy narrative that the NHS is in the grip of a simple funding crisis because of the selfish, rich Tories has given way today to a more worrying truth: the entire structure of the NHS is creaking, and without serious structural reforms, it will croak.

The myth that our NHS, which now ranks in the bottom third of international comparisons of healthcare system performance, is the “envy of the world” has been busted. We are confronted with the sad truth that our health service grades far below the best social health insurance systems of Europe, which consistently outperform the UK on crucial aspects of healthcare, such as A&E waiting times and cancer treatment. While some countries with better health outcomes spend a higher percentage of their GDP on healthcare (like Germany and France), other countries, like Australia and Iceland, are spending roughly equal or less and also delivering better results.

In short, the NHS is not facing a winter funding crisis, it’s facing an existential one.

For Theresa May’s unexpected renaissance, this is bad news. Whereas a funding crisis could have been solved with an injection of cash, an existential one can only be solved by a strong, reforming government with a large majority and a vision. All of which she lacks.

For all her tenacity, sense of duty and laudable determination, it is becoming increasingly clear that our poor, beleaguered Prime Minister will never be able to do more than ricochet from one crisis to another. For a country about to face its biggest test in 70 years, and with a health care system to fix, that just won’t do.